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PreprintarXiv licencearXiv

Measures of Reliability Risk for the Australian Energy Sector

  • John Boland
  • Matthias Fresacher
  • David Hill
  • Shijia Jin
  • Ya Li
  • Graham Mills
  • Kihun Nam
  • Craig Oakeshotte
  • Andriy Olenko
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Abstract

The article identifies the desired properties of the reliability risk metric for the Australian Energy Sector. It proposes a comprehensive set of metrics designed to measure various aspects of the reliability risk when a large portion of power generation is composed of variable renewable energy (VRE). The suggested methods aim to balance the tradeoff between economic benefit and risk management, effectively address the tail risk, and interpret the severity of the outage in a direct way. Properties of the considered reliability metrics are investigated by using simulation studies that use time series of expected unserved energy values. Sample distributions, dependency structures and other statistical properties of the metrics are studied. The results suggest new tools and approaches that can be used to increase the efficiency of the Australian Energy Sector.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@misc{boland2026measures,
  title = {{Measures of Reliability Risk for the Australian Energy Sector}},
  author = {John Boland and Matthias Fresacher and David Hill and Shijia Jin and Ya Li and Graham Mills and Kihun Nam and Craig Oakeshotte and Andriy Olenko},
  howpublished = {arXiv},
  year = {2026},
  month = sep,
  doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.36751},
  eprint = {2609.36751},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.36751},
}
RIS
TY  - UNPB
TI  - Measures of Reliability Risk for the Australian Energy Sector
AU  - John Boland
AU  - Matthias Fresacher
AU  - David Hill
AU  - Shijia Jin
AU  - Ya Li
AU  - Graham Mills
AU  - Kihun Nam
AU  - Craig Oakeshotte
AU  - Andriy Olenko
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/29
PB  - arXiv
DO  - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.36751
UR  - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.36751
AB  - The article identifies the desired properties of the reliability risk metric for the Australian Energy Sector. It proposes a comprehensive set of metrics designed to measure various aspects of the reliability risk when a large portion of power generation is composed of variable renewable energy (VRE). The suggested methods aim to balance the tradeoff between economic benefit and risk management, effectively address the tail risk, and interpret the severity of the outage in a direct way. Properties of the considered reliability metrics are investigated by using simulation studies that use time series of expected unserved energy values. Sample distributions, dependency structures and other statistical properties of the metrics are studied. The results suggest new tools and approaches that can be used to increase the efficiency of the Australian Energy Sector.
ER  -