Age trajectories of infant mortality among Palestinian refugees born in 2010-2020: evidence from electronic health records
- 1London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Abstract
ObjectivesTo estimate age trajectories of infant mortality among Palestinian refugees using electronic health records, addressing the scarcity of reliable mortality data in forced displacement settings.
SettingPalestinian refugees living in Gaza, West Bank, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon.
DesignWe fitted a Bayesian Negative Binomial model to observed death counts, using a flexible parametric function (a shifting power function) to capture the shape of the infant mortality curve, across strata to infer age trajectories of infant mortality.
ParticipantsPalestinian refugees born in 2010-2020 and registered with UNRWA health services in Gaza, West Bank, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. The sample was stratified by sex, field, gestational age and birth cohort.
Main outcome measuresSurvival rate to age 1.
ResultsOverall, the survival rate to age 1 was 98.64%, with slightly lower rates for males (98.57%) than females (98.68%). Across settings, West Bank refugees had the lowest infant mortality (99.08% survival rate), and Jordan refugees had the highest (98.22% survival rate). Results by gestational age showed a 98.85% survival rate at age 1 among term births compared to a 73.32% survival rate among very preterm births. Survival rates by cohort (births up to 2015 or after) were 98.78% and 98.42%, respectively.
ConclusionOur findings highlight the potential of electronic health records for mortality monitoring in forced displacement settings as they reveal consistent mortality trajectories by sex and gestational age, while identifying meaningful variation across refugee settings and subgroups.
Summary boxesO_ST_ABSWhat is already known in this topicC_ST_ABSWe searched PubMed and Google Scholar for articles published between Jan 1, 2000, and Feb 20, 2026, in English, using the terms "Palestinian refugees," "infant mortality," "neonatal mortality," and "UNRWA." We found a handful of studies estimating infant mortality among Palestinian refugees, mostly based on household surveys (eg, MICS, national statistical office surveys) or UNRWA surveys using preceding birth techniques. The preceding birth technique has notable limitations, including recall bias, small sample sizes, and selection bias. The majority of these studies focus exclusively on Palestinian refugees residing in Gaza. Estimates for Gaza suggest a sustained decline, from around 127 deaths per 1,000 births in 1960 to 20.2 per 1,000 births in 2006, with a slowdown thereafter and an increase in more recent years. A combined estimate (excluding Syria) across four settings where Palestinian refugees reside measures infant mortality at 18 per 1,000 births in 2011.
What this study addsThis study uses a unique data linkage bringing together UNRWAs obstetric and child health records, providing more extensive information and a larger sample size than previous studies. This is also the first study to assess the data quality of these electronic records and to estimate age trajectories of infant mortality among Palestinian refugees. We developed a statistical strategy that estimated infant mortality trajectories covering all five UNRWA fields (Gaza, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and the West Bank) for children born in 2010-2020, and examined differences across subpopulations by sex, field, gestational age and cohort.
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BibTeX
@misc{koksal2026trajectories,
title = {{Age trajectories of infant mortality among Palestinian refugees born in 2010-2020: evidence from electronic health records}},
author = {S. Koksal and Y. Chen and Z. Jamaluddine and S. Akihiro and F. Checchi and O. Campbell and J. M. Aburto},
howpublished = {medRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.64898/2026.09.22.26363685},
url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.22.26363685v1},
note = {CC BY-NC},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Age trajectories of infant mortality among Palestinian refugees born in 2010-2020: evidence from electronic health records
AU - S. Koksal
AU - Y. Chen
AU - Z. Jamaluddine
AU - S. Akihiro
AU - F. Checchi
AU - O. Campbell
AU - J. M. Aburto
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/22
PB - medRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.09.22.26363685
UR - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.22.26363685v1
AB - ObjectivesTo estimate age trajectories of infant mortality among Palestinian refugees using electronic health records, addressing the scarcity of reliable mortality data in forced displacement settings. SettingPalestinian refugees living in Gaza, West Bank, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. DesignWe fitted a Bayesian Negative Binomial model to observed death counts, using a flexible parametric function (a shifting power function) to capture the shape of the infant mortality curve, across strata to infer age trajectories of infant mortality. ParticipantsPalestinian refugees born in 2010-2020 and registered with UNRWA health services in Gaza, West Bank, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. The sample was stratified by sex, field, gestational age and birth cohort. Main outcome measuresSurvival rate to age 1. ResultsOverall, the survival rate to age 1 was 98.64%, with slightly lower rates for males (98.57%) than females (98.68%). Across settings, West Bank refugees had the lowest infant mortality (99.08% survival rate), and Jordan refugees had the highest (98.22% survival rate). Results by gestational age showed a 98.85% survival rate at age 1 among term births compared to a 73.32% survival rate among very preterm births. Survival rates by cohort (births up to 2015 or after) were 98.78% and 98.42%, respectively. ConclusionOur findings highlight the potential of electronic health records for mortality monitoring in forced displacement settings as they reveal consistent mortality trajectories by sex and gestational age, while identifying meaningful variation across refugee settings and subgroups. Summary boxesO_ST_ABSWhat is already known in this topicC_ST_ABSWe searched PubMed and Google Scholar for articles published between Jan 1, 2000, and Feb 20, 2026, in English, using the terms "Palestinian refugees," "infant mortality," "neonatal mortality," and "UNRWA." We found a handful of studies estimating infant mortality among Palestinian refugees, mostly based on household surveys (eg, MICS, national statistical office surveys) or UNRWA surveys using preceding birth techniques. The preceding birth technique has notable limitations, including recall bias, small sample sizes, and selection bias. The majority of these studies focus exclusively on Palestinian refugees residing in Gaza. Estimates for Gaza suggest a sustained decline, from around 127 deaths per 1,000 births in 1960 to 20.2 per 1,000 births in 2006, with a slowdown thereafter and an increase in more recent years. A combined estimate (excluding Syria) across four settings where Palestinian refugees reside measures infant mortality at 18 per 1,000 births in 2011. What this study addsThis study uses a unique data linkage bringing together UNRWAs obstetric and child health records, providing more extensive information and a larger sample size than previous studies. This is also the first study to assess the data quality of these electronic records and to estimate age trajectories of infant mortality among Palestinian refugees. We developed a statistical strategy that estimated infant mortality trajectories covering all five UNRWA fields (Gaza, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and the West Bank) for children born in 2010-2020, and examined differences across subpopulations by sex, field, gestational age and cohort.
ER -