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Peer-reviewedCC BY-NCScience Advances

A 256-year daily rainfall record reveals multiscale rainy-season variability and emerging hydroclimatic hazard over northern East Asia

  • Yuqi Wang1,2
  • Yong Wei2,3
  • Zhonghua Yao1,4
  • Shiling Yang5,6
  • Feng Shi5,6
  • Wei Lin2
6 affiliations
  1. 1Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China.
  2. 2Key Laboratory of Planetary Science and Frontier Technology, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China.
  3. 3School of Space Exploration, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China.
  4. 4Laboratory for Space Research, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China.
  5. 5State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric and Environmental Coevolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China.
  6. 6College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
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Abstract

Monsoon rainy seasons shape water supply and flood hazard across northern East Asia, but their long-term variability remains poorly understood because few daily rainfall records extend beyond the instrumental era. Here, we reconstruct rainy-season onset, retreat, and duration from a 256-year daily precipitation record for Seoul (1770-2025), providing an unusually long view of seasonal monsoon behavior. The reconstruction reveals structured quasi-decadal to multidecadal variability in rainy-season duration, indicating that recent rainy-season lengthening over northern East Asia is consistent with the latest positive excursion of a recurrent multidecadal modulation rather than a purely isolated modern anomaly. Coupled with warming-associated intensification of extreme rainfall, this prolonged-duration phase has elevated the compound-hazard probability, with recent probability peaks exceeding the long-term mean of ∼25% in Seoul. Exploratory near-term outlooks suggest that rainy-season duration in northern East Asia is likely to remain prolonged toward mid-century, sustaining heightened compound hydroclimatic hazard when seasonally extended overlaps with intensified event-scale rainfall.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{wang2026256year,
  title = {{A 256-year daily rainfall record reveals multiscale rainy-season variability and emerging hydroclimatic hazard over northern East Asia}},
  author = {Yuqi Wang and Yong Wei and Zhonghua Yao and Shiling Yang and Feng Shi and Wei Lin},
  journal = {Science Advances},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aeh6716},
  url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aeh6716},
  note = {CC BY-NC},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - A 256-year daily rainfall record reveals multiscale rainy-season variability and emerging hydroclimatic hazard over northern East Asia
AU  - Yuqi Wang
AU  - Yong Wei
AU  - Zhonghua Yao
AU  - Shiling Yang
AU  - Feng Shi
AU  - Wei Lin
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/09
JO  - Science Advances
DO  - 10.1126/sciadv.aeh6716
UR  - https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aeh6716
AB  - Monsoon rainy seasons shape water supply and flood hazard across northern East Asia, but their long-term variability remains poorly understood because few daily rainfall records extend beyond the instrumental era. Here, we reconstruct rainy-season onset, retreat, and duration from a 256-year daily precipitation record for Seoul (1770-2025), providing an unusually long view of seasonal monsoon behavior. The reconstruction reveals structured quasi-decadal to multidecadal variability in rainy-season duration, indicating that recent rainy-season lengthening over northern East Asia is consistent with the latest positive excursion of a recurrent multidecadal modulation rather than a purely isolated modern anomaly. Coupled with warming-associated intensification of extreme rainfall, this prolonged-duration phase has elevated the compound-hazard probability, with recent probability peaks exceeding the long-term mean of ∼25% in Seoul. Exploratory near-term outlooks suggest that rainy-season duration in northern East Asia is likely to remain prolonged toward mid-century, sustaining heightened compound hydroclimatic hazard when seasonally extended overlaps with intensified event-scale rainfall.
SN  - 2375-2548
ER  -