Predictions for Short Gamma-Ray Burst Detections by COSI

@misc{neights2026predictions,
  title = {{Predictions for Short Gamma-Ray Burst Detections by COSI}},
  author = {Eliza Neights and Eric Burns and Nicolò Parmiggiani and Yong Sheng and Savitri Gallego and Aldo Aguilar-Nadalini and Aaron C. Trigg and Sylvain Guiriec and Koothodil Abhijith Augustine and Matthew G. Baring and Anna L. Butterworth and Hsiang-Kuang Chang and Che-Yen Chu and Niccolò Di Lalla and Christopher Fryer and Hadar Lazar and Israel Martinez-Castellanos and Marion Sudvarg and Péter Veres and Steven E. Boggs and Dieter H. Hartmann and Carolyn A. Kierans and John A. Tomsick and Andreas Zoglauer},
  howpublished = {arXiv},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.08940},
  eprint = {2610.08940},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.08940},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}

TY  - UNPB
TI  - Predictions for Short Gamma-Ray Burst Detections by COSI
AU  - Eliza Neights
AU  - Eric Burns
AU  - Nicolò Parmiggiani
AU  - Yong Sheng
AU  - Savitri Gallego
AU  - Aldo Aguilar-Nadalini
AU  - Aaron C. Trigg
AU  - Sylvain Guiriec
AU  - Koothodil Abhijith Augustine
AU  - Matthew G. Baring
AU  - Anna L. Butterworth
AU  - Hsiang-Kuang Chang
AU  - Che-Yen Chu
AU  - Niccolò Di Lalla
AU  - Christopher Fryer
AU  - Hadar Lazar
AU  - Israel Martinez-Castellanos
AU  - Marion Sudvarg
AU  - Péter Veres
AU  - Steven E. Boggs
AU  - Dieter H. Hartmann
AU  - Carolyn A. Kierans
AU  - John A. Tomsick
AU  - Andreas Zoglauer
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/06
PB  - arXiv
DO  - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.08940
UR  - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.08940
AB  - The Compton Spectrometer and Imager (COSI) is a soft gamma-ray telescope scheduled to launch in 2027. COSI will trigger onboard the spacecraft in response to short-duration transients, including gamma-ray bursts, and it will promptly disseminate alerts which include localizations to the community. This will enable rapid follow-up observations of the afterglow and associations with transients identified by other instruments. By simulating COSI observations of short gamma-ray bursts (sGRBs) and processing them with the trigger algorithm which will run onboard the spacecraft, we estimate the sensitivity of COSI to sGRBs. We then convolve this with a simulated set of sGRBs representing the intrinsic population in the universe to predict the rate that will be detected by COSI. We find that COSI is expected to trigger on ∼47-89 sGRBs per year with ∼7-10 localized to within 2.5°. With the gravitational wave sensitivity anticipated in the O5 run, we predict 0-3 joint detections with gravitational waves.
ER  -