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Peer-reviewedCC BYProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Constructing a lower-bound estimate of the global number of insect species on a hyperdiverse empirical foundation

  • Robert K. Colwell1,2
  • Laura Melissa Guzman3
  • Dirk Steinke4
  • Anne Chao5
  • Daniel H. Janzen6
  • Winnie Hallwachs6
  • Austin J. Baker7
  • José Fernández-Triana8
  • Paul D. N. Hebert4
  • Frank Joyce9
  • Robert Puschendorf10
  • Donаld L. J. Quicke11
4 more authors
  • Rodolphe Rougerie12
  • M. Alex Smith13
  • Nelson A. Zamora14
  • Michael J. Sharkey14,15
15 affiliations
  1. 1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut
  2. 2Entomology Section, University of Colorado Museum of Natural History
  3. 3Department of Entomology, Cornell University
  4. 4Centre for Biodiversity Genomics, Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph
  5. 5Institute of Statistics, National Tsing Hua University
  6. 6Department of Biology, University of Pennsylvania
  7. 7Department of Entomology, Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County
  8. 8Canadian National Collection of Insects
  9. 9Monteverde Institute
  10. 10School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth
  11. 11Center of Excellence in Integrative Insect Ecology, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn University
  12. 12Department of Origins and Evolution, Institut de Systématique, Évolution, Biodiversité, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, CNRS, École Pratique des Hautes Études – Université Paris Sciences & Lettres, Sorbonne Université, Université des Antilles
  13. 13Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph
  14. 14Escuela de Ingeniería Forestal, Instituto Tecnológico de Costa Rica
  15. 15The Hymenoptera Institute
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Abstract

Estimating the number of insect species on Earth is a daunting challenge. The current consensus estimate-about six million species-is likely far too low, as we will show. Our estimate of the global number of insect species rests on a sample of more than 1,600,000 DNA-barcoded insect specimens representing 53,945 species from 15 "core" Malaise traps deployed in dry forest, cloud forest, and rainforest ecosystems of the Área de Conservación Guanacaste (ACG) in Costa Rica. Even this massive sample fails to reveal the full extent of ACG insect species richness. To estimate total ACG insect richness, we adjust the observed count of insect species by an "undersampling ratio," computed for a hyperdiverse subfamily of parasitoid wasps (Braconidae: Microgastrinae). The ratio compares microgastrine richness from the core Malaise traps to a lower-bound estimate of true microgastrine richness-including undetected species-based on 21,669 specimens from three sources: the 15 core Malaise traps, 15 "peripheral" Malaise traps spanning all three ecosystems, and 11,373 DNA-barcoded specimens reared from some 1,500 species of microgastrine-parasitized caterpillars (Lepidoptera). To estimate global insect richness, we apply Earth/ACG ratios for tree species and several animal taxa to upscale our estimate of ACG insect richness (nearly 333,000 species). Adopting conservative assumptions, we reach an estimate of 14 to 20 million insect species on Earth, depending on the upscaling group-two to three times the current consensus estimates. Upscaling instead from a point estimate of ACG richness with a wide CI, global estimates reach nearly 30 million species.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{colwell2026constructing,
  title = {{Constructing a lower-bound estimate of the global number of insect species on a hyperdiverse empirical foundation}},
  author = {Robert K. Colwell and Laura Melissa Guzman and Dirk Steinke and Anne Chao and Daniel H. Janzen and Winnie Hallwachs and Austin J. Baker and José Fernández-Triana and Paul D. N. Hebert and Frank Joyce and Robert Puschendorf and Donаld L. J. Quicke and Rodolphe Rougerie and M. Alex Smith and Nelson A. Zamora and Michael J. Sharkey},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  year = {2026},
  month = jun,
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.2524283123},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2524283123},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Constructing a lower-bound estimate of the global number of insect species on a hyperdiverse empirical foundation
AU  - Robert K. Colwell
AU  - Laura Melissa Guzman
AU  - Dirk Steinke
AU  - Anne Chao
AU  - Daniel H. Janzen
AU  - Winnie Hallwachs
AU  - Austin J. Baker
AU  - José Fernández-Triana
AU  - Paul D. N. Hebert
AU  - Frank Joyce
AU  - Robert Puschendorf
AU  - Donаld L. J. Quicke
AU  - Rodolphe Rougerie
AU  - M. Alex Smith
AU  - Nelson A. Zamora
AU  - Michael J. Sharkey
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/06/29
JO  - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DO  - 10.1073/pnas.2524283123
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2524283123
AB  - Estimating the number of insect species on Earth is a daunting challenge. The current consensus estimate-about six million species-is likely far too low, as we will show. Our estimate of the global number of insect species rests on a sample of more than 1,600,000 DNA-barcoded insect specimens representing 53,945 species from 15 "core" Malaise traps deployed in dry forest, cloud forest, and rainforest ecosystems of the Área de Conservación Guanacaste (ACG) in Costa Rica. Even this massive sample fails to reveal the full extent of ACG insect species richness. To estimate total ACG insect richness, we adjust the observed count of insect species by an "undersampling ratio," computed for a hyperdiverse subfamily of parasitoid wasps (Braconidae: Microgastrinae). The ratio compares microgastrine richness from the core Malaise traps to a lower-bound estimate of true microgastrine richness-including undetected species-based on 21,669 specimens from three sources: the 15 core Malaise traps, 15 "peripheral" Malaise traps spanning all three ecosystems, and 11,373 DNA-barcoded specimens reared from some 1,500 species of microgastrine-parasitized caterpillars (Lepidoptera). To estimate global insect richness, we apply Earth/ACG ratios for tree species and several animal taxa to upscale our estimate of ACG insect richness (nearly 333,000 species). Adopting conservative assumptions, we reach an estimate of 14 to 20 million insect species on Earth, depending on the upscaling group-two to three times the current consensus estimates. Upscaling instead from a point estimate of ACG richness with a wide CI, global estimates reach nearly 30 million species.
SN  - 0027-8424
SN  - 1091-6490
ER  -