Non-fasting and Fasting Triglyceride Levels and the Risk of Diabetes Mellitus: The Circulatory Risk in Communities Study
Abstract
AIMS: Non-fasting triglyceride measurements have become increasingly common in screening for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. However, evidence of its predictive value for diabetes mellitus is limited to only a few studies. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included two groups of individuals aged 40-74 years without diabetes mellitus: 7,673 who provided non-fasting blood samples and 4,055 who provided fasting samples. We used annual health checkup data to identify new cases of diabetes mellitus, employed Cox proportional hazard models to estimate hazard ratios, and conducted decision curve analyses to assess clinical utility. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 13 years, 727 and 444 participants were diagnosed with diabetes mellitus in the non-fasting and fasting groups, respectively. After adjusting for the glucose levels and other potential confounders measured at baseline, both non-fasting and fasting triglyceride levels were positively associated with the hazard of diabetes mellitus; the hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for the highest versus lowest quartiles were 1.99 (1.50-2.64) and 1.58 (1.11-2.26), respectively. Adding non-fasting or fasting triglyceride levels to a model based on traditional predictors can slightly improve the net benefit for 15-year risk prediction, corresponding to an approximate gain of 1 to 2 additional individuals per 1,000 screened. The improvement was slightly greater under non-fasting conditions than under fasting conditions. CONCLUSION: Both the non-fasting and fasting triglyceride levels were associated with an increased hazard of diabetes mellitus. Adding the triglyceride levels can therefore provide modest but potentially useful supplementary information for diabetes prediction, particularly under non-fasting conditions.
Related
- Association of the Triglyceride–Glucose Index with Systolic and Diastolic Blood Pressure Among Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus
- Association between fasting plasma glucose at diagnosis and large-for-gestational-age in Japanese women with gestational diabetes mellitus: Hamamatsu GRACE Study 6
- Fasting during pregnancy and gestational diabetes mellitus risk: Kuwait birth cohort study
- Diagnostic Performance of Triglyceride-Glucose Body Mass Index (TyG-BMI), Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4), and Their Combined Model for Clinically Significant Liver Fibrosis in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus
- Association between the C-reactive protein-triglyceride glucose index and carotid atherosclerosis in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus
BibTeX
@article{li2026nonfasting,
title = {{Non-fasting and Fasting Triglyceride Levels and the Risk of Diabetes Mellitus: The Circulatory Risk in Communities Study}},
author = {Jiaqi Li and Hironori Imano and Kazumasa Yamagishi and Mari Tanaka and Mina Hayama-Terada and Isao Muraki and Yuji Shimizu and Tetsuya Ohira and Mitsumasa Umesawa and Tomoko Sankai and Takeo Okada and Masahiko Kiyama and Akihiko Kitamura and Takeshi Tanigawa and Hiroyasu Iso},
journal = {Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis},
year = {2026},
month = jul,
doi = {10.5551/jat.66064},
url = {https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jat/advpub/0/advpub_66064/_article},
note = {CC BY-NC-SA},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Non-fasting and Fasting Triglyceride Levels and the Risk of Diabetes Mellitus: The Circulatory Risk in Communities Study
AU - Jiaqi Li
AU - Hironori Imano
AU - Kazumasa Yamagishi
AU - Mari Tanaka
AU - Mina Hayama-Terada
AU - Isao Muraki
AU - Yuji Shimizu
AU - Tetsuya Ohira
AU - Mitsumasa Umesawa
AU - Tomoko Sankai
AU - Takeo Okada
AU - Masahiko Kiyama
AU - Akihiko Kitamura
AU - Takeshi Tanigawa
AU - Hiroyasu Iso
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/07/15
JO - Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis
DO - 10.5551/jat.66064
UR - https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jat/advpub/0/advpub_66064/_article
AB - AIMS: Non-fasting triglyceride measurements have become increasingly common in screening for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. However, evidence of its predictive value for diabetes mellitus is limited to only a few studies. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included two groups of individuals aged 40-74 years without diabetes mellitus: 7,673 who provided non-fasting blood samples and 4,055 who provided fasting samples. We used annual health checkup data to identify new cases of diabetes mellitus, employed Cox proportional hazard models to estimate hazard ratios, and conducted decision curve analyses to assess clinical utility. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 13 years, 727 and 444 participants were diagnosed with diabetes mellitus in the non-fasting and fasting groups, respectively. After adjusting for the glucose levels and other potential confounders measured at baseline, both non-fasting and fasting triglyceride levels were positively associated with the hazard of diabetes mellitus; the hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for the highest versus lowest quartiles were 1.99 (1.50-2.64) and 1.58 (1.11-2.26), respectively. Adding non-fasting or fasting triglyceride levels to a model based on traditional predictors can slightly improve the net benefit for 15-year risk prediction, corresponding to an approximate gain of 1 to 2 additional individuals per 1,000 screened. The improvement was slightly greater under non-fasting conditions than under fasting conditions. CONCLUSION: Both the non-fasting and fasting triglyceride levels were associated with an increased hazard of diabetes mellitus. Adding the triglyceride levels can therefore provide modest but potentially useful supplementary information for diabetes prediction, particularly under non-fasting conditions.
SN - 1880-3873
SN - 1340-3478
ER -