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Peer-reviewedCC BYScience Advances

From plankton to fish: 21st-century redistribution of marine biodiversity and the changing role of rare species

  • Elena Couce1
  • Lily Greig1
  • Georg H. Engelhard1,2
  • John K. Pinnegar1,2
  • Keith M. Cooper1
  • Pierre Hélaouët3
  • Laurene Pecuchet4
  • Myron A. Peck5
  • Martin Lindegren6
  • Murray S. A. Thompson1
6 affiliations
  1. 1Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Lowestoft Laboratory, Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, Suffolk NR33 0HT, UK.
  2. 2School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia (UEA), Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK.
  3. 3The Marine Biological Association (MBA) The Laboratory, Citadel Hill Plymouth, Devon PL1 2PB, UK.
  4. 4Norwegian College of Fishery Science, UiT, The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway.
  5. 5Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Landsdiep 4, 1797 SZ ‘t Horntje (Texel), Netherlands.
  6. 6DTU Aqua, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark.
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Abstract

Predictions of climate-driven marine biodiversity change typically overlook noncommercial and rare taxa, leading to an incomplete and potentially biased understanding of change. We address this gap by quantifying α-, β-, and γ-diversity using Hill numbers consistently across co-occurring phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos, and fish taxonomic groups. Using Bayesian additive regression trees and extensive survey data, we project climate-driven biodiversity change in the northeast Atlantic until 2100. We show that climate change could redistribute biodiversity both within taxonomic groups, altering the contribution of rare species, and across the food web. Widespread increases in fish and benthos species richness, reflecting poleward migration, often coincided with declines in zooplankton and phytoplankton richness, potentially disrupting energy transfer from lower to higher trophic levels. By identifying areas with high biodiversity across taxonomic groups and predicting how these could change in the future, we provide a framework to support proactive conservation actions to help achieve global biodiversity targets in a changing climate.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{couce2026from,
  title = {{From plankton to fish: 21st-century redistribution of marine biodiversity and the changing role of rare species}},
  author = {Elena Couce and Lily Greig and Georg H. Engelhard and John K. Pinnegar and Keith M. Cooper and Pierre Hélaouët and Laurene Pecuchet and Myron A. Peck and Martin Lindegren and Murray S. A. Thompson},
  journal = {Science Advances},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aee7253},
  url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aee7253},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - From plankton to fish: 21st-century redistribution of marine biodiversity and the changing role of rare species
AU  - Elena Couce
AU  - Lily Greig
AU  - Georg H. Engelhard
AU  - John K. Pinnegar
AU  - Keith M. Cooper
AU  - Pierre Hélaouët
AU  - Laurene Pecuchet
AU  - Myron A. Peck
AU  - Martin Lindegren
AU  - Murray S. A. Thompson
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/09
JO  - Science Advances
DO  - 10.1126/sciadv.aee7253
UR  - https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aee7253
AB  - Predictions of climate-driven marine biodiversity change typically overlook noncommercial and rare taxa, leading to an incomplete and potentially biased understanding of change. We address this gap by quantifying α-, β-, and γ-diversity using Hill numbers consistently across co-occurring phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos, and fish taxonomic groups. Using Bayesian additive regression trees and extensive survey data, we project climate-driven biodiversity change in the northeast Atlantic until 2100. We show that climate change could redistribute biodiversity both within taxonomic groups, altering the contribution of rare species, and across the food web. Widespread increases in fish and benthos species richness, reflecting poleward migration, often coincided with declines in zooplankton and phytoplankton richness, potentially disrupting energy transfer from lower to higher trophic levels. By identifying areas with high biodiversity across taxonomic groups and predicting how these could change in the future, we provide a framework to support proactive conservation actions to help achieve global biodiversity targets in a changing climate.
SN  - 2375-2548
ER  -