Generative modelling for multivariate spatio-temporal downscaling of monthly climate fields
Abstract
Inferring climate fields at higher spatio-temporal resolutions from coarse representations is essential for accessing socioeconomic and environmental impacts. The downscaling of modelled climate fields faces a trade-off between data storage constraints, simulation efficiency, and resolution requirements. While many methods for spatial downscaling have been proposed, joint spatio-temporal downscaling has received comparable little attention. When deriving, for example, daily fields from climate datasets that are available only as monthly averages at coarser spatial resolution, it is highly challenging to faithfully reproduce extreme event statistics and spatiotemporal consistency. To address this task, we introduce a generative machine learning approach, using a diffusion model to jointly downscale monthly temperature and precipitation fields into temporally consistent daily fields at higher spatial resolution. We demonstrate that our approach can generate high-dimensional multivariate climate fields at daily temporal and 0.25° spatial resolution from monthly input fields at 1° spatial resolution, exhibiting coherent temporal dynamics and physically plausible spatial structures. In particular, by incorporating a conditional guidance technique, we show that a pre-trained diffusion model can be directly leveraged to efficiently generate daily high-resolution fields conditioned on monthly inputs, without requiring additional fine-tuning or retraining. Our probabilistic approach thus provides an efficient and generalizable framework for spatio-temporal climate downscaling, enabling flexible climate fields generation for climate impact assessments and digital Earth simulator constructions.
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BibTeX
@misc{huang2026generative,
title = {{Generative modelling for multivariate spatio-temporal downscaling of monthly climate fields}},
author = {Yu Huang and Shangshang Yang and Sebastian Bathiany and Michael Aich and Philipp Hess and Niklas Boers},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.19885},
eprint = {2610.19885},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.19885},
note = {CC BY-NC-SA 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Generative modelling for multivariate spatio-temporal downscaling of monthly climate fields
AU - Yu Huang
AU - Shangshang Yang
AU - Sebastian Bathiany
AU - Michael Aich
AU - Philipp Hess
AU - Niklas Boers
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/14
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.19885
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.19885
AB - Inferring climate fields at higher spatio-temporal resolutions from coarse representations is essential for accessing socioeconomic and environmental impacts. The downscaling of modelled climate fields faces a trade-off between data storage constraints, simulation efficiency, and resolution requirements. While many methods for spatial downscaling have been proposed, joint spatio-temporal downscaling has received comparable little attention. When deriving, for example, daily fields from climate datasets that are available only as monthly averages at coarser spatial resolution, it is highly challenging to faithfully reproduce extreme event statistics and spatiotemporal consistency. To address this task, we introduce a generative machine learning approach, using a diffusion model to jointly downscale monthly temperature and precipitation fields into temporally consistent daily fields at higher spatial resolution. We demonstrate that our approach can generate high-dimensional multivariate climate fields at daily temporal and 0.25° spatial resolution from monthly input fields at 1° spatial resolution, exhibiting coherent temporal dynamics and physically plausible spatial structures. In particular, by incorporating a conditional guidance technique, we show that a pre-trained diffusion model can be directly leveraged to efficiently generate daily high-resolution fields conditioned on monthly inputs, without requiring additional fine-tuning or retraining. Our probabilistic approach thus provides an efficient and generalizable framework for spatio-temporal climate downscaling, enabling flexible climate fields generation for climate impact assessments and digital Earth simulator constructions.
ER -