Assessment of methane emissions from European countries using satellite and surface observations
- 1Westlake University (Hangzhou, China)
Abstract
Europe is a global leader in mitigating methane emissions through comprehensive policies, including the EU Methane Strategy and commitments under the Global Methane Pledge. National bottom-up inventories are widely regarded as high quality; however, atmospheric observations remain essential for independent verification and tracking emission reductions. Here, we present a multi-year (2019–2023) top-down assessment of European methane emissions using a Bayesian inversion of satellite observations from TROPOMI and surface measurements from ICOS. Analysis of observational constraints shows that surface measurements provide the dominant information, while satellite observations offer complementary coverage in regions not covered by the surface network. The inversion estimates total European methane emissions at 25.7 Tg yr ⁻¹ , including 22.5 Tg yr ⁻¹ from anthropogenic sources, which is 1.0 Tg yr ⁻¹ higher than the prior inventory. The upward adjustments are likely associated with livestock and waste emissions in central and western Europe, partly offset by lower fossil fuel emissions in the North Sea. National emissions for the Netherlands, Germany, and Italy are 18 %–80 % higher than the values reported to the UNFCCC. The inversion also reveals an overall decline in anthropogenic emissions, with a linear trend of −0.25 Tg yr ⁻² . While consistent in magnitude with the prior estimate, the inversion shows a distinct spatial pattern: increases in livestock and waste emissions in western Europe contrast with decreases in fossil fuel production regions such as the North Sea and Poland. These findings highlight the value of atmospheric observations for evaluating methane inventories and informing climate policy.
Versions
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BibTeX
@article{sun2026assessment,
title = {{Assessment of methane emissions from European countries using satellite and surface observations}},
author = {Shuai Sun and Yuzhong Zhang and Wei Chen and Shaomin Pan and Dongchuan Pu and Xin Tong and Huilin Chen and Sander Houweling},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.5194/acp-26-14981-2026},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-14981-2026},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Assessment of methane emissions from European countries using satellite and surface observations
AU - Shuai Sun
AU - Yuzhong Zhang
AU - Wei Chen
AU - Shaomin Pan
AU - Dongchuan Pu
AU - Xin Tong
AU - Huilin Chen
AU - Sander Houweling
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/23
JO - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
DO - 10.5194/acp-26-14981-2026
UR - https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-14981-2026
AB - Europe is a global leader in mitigating methane emissions through comprehensive policies, including the EU Methane Strategy and commitments under the Global Methane Pledge. National bottom-up inventories are widely regarded as high quality; however, atmospheric observations remain essential for independent verification and tracking emission reductions. Here, we present a multi-year (2019–2023) top-down assessment of European methane emissions using a Bayesian inversion of satellite observations from TROPOMI and surface measurements from ICOS. Analysis of observational constraints shows that surface measurements provide the dominant information, while satellite observations offer complementary coverage in regions not covered by the surface network. The inversion estimates total European methane emissions at 25.7 Tg yr ⁻¹ , including 22.5 Tg yr ⁻¹ from anthropogenic sources, which is 1.0 Tg yr ⁻¹ higher than the prior inventory. The upward adjustments are likely associated with livestock and waste emissions in central and western Europe, partly offset by lower fossil fuel emissions in the North Sea. National emissions for the Netherlands, Germany, and Italy are 18 %–80 % higher than the values reported to the UNFCCC. The inversion also reveals an overall decline in anthropogenic emissions, with a linear trend of −0.25 Tg yr ⁻² . While consistent in magnitude with the prior estimate, the inversion shows a distinct spatial pattern: increases in livestock and waste emissions in western Europe contrast with decreases in fossil fuel production regions such as the North Sea and Poland. These findings highlight the value of atmospheric observations for evaluating methane inventories and informing climate policy.
SN - 1680-7324
SN - 1680-7316
ER -