Trends and future projections of Parkinson’s disease burden in China: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
6 affiliations
- 1Department of Pharmacy, Peking University Third Hospital, Beijing 100191, China
- 2Institute for Drug Evaluation, Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing 100191, China
- 3National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
- 4School of Basic Medicine, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, Shandong, China
- 5Department of Neurology, Peking University Sixth Hospital, Peking University Institute of Mental Health, NHC Key Laboratory of Mental Health (Peking University), National Clinical Research Center for Mental Disorders (Peking University Sixth Hospital), Beijing 100191, China
- 6Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China
Abstract
Background: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a major public health burden in China. We aimed to analyze temporal trends in PD burden across China from 1990 to 2023, and project the future burden through 2050.
Methods: Using data from the 2023 Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2023) database, prevalence, incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) of PD in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities, and the two special administrative regions (SAR) of Hong Kong and Macao of China from 1990 to 2023 were analyzed. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) and the average annual percent change (AAPCs) were calculated. Changes in case numbers were decomposed using a Das Gupta framework, and future burden to 2050 was projected using a probabilistic model-averaging approach.
Results: From 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and YLD rates of PD increased in China, whereas the age-standardized mortality, YLL, and DALY rates decreased. The number of people living with PD increased from 781.29 thousand (95% UI 629.39–973.58) in 1990 to 3445.69 thousand (95% UI 2804.28–4243.67) in 2023, and incident cases increased from 99.51 thousand (95% UI 82.51–118.00) in 1990 to 379.69 thousand (95% UI 319.28–447.58) in 2023. The age-standardized prevalence rate increased from 106.56 per 100,000 (95% UI 86.16–131.29) to 148.74 per 100,000 (95% UI 122.07–183.52) (AAPC=1.03%, 95% CI 0.98–1.09), whereas the age-standardized mortality, DALY, and YLL rates decreased from 4.69 per 100,000 to 3.78 per 100,000, 92.40 per 100,000 to 77.87 per 100,000, and 77.37 per 100,000 to 56.81 per 100,000, respectively. The age-standardized YLD rate increased from 15.03 per 100,000 to 21.07 per 100,000. Males had consistently higher ASRs than females, although the prevalence rate increased faster in females than in males (AAPC: 1.14% vs. 0.86%, P<0.001). In 2023, PD prevalence increased with age, whereas incident cases peaked at ages 70–74 years and deaths at ages 80–84 years. High-middle-Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions had the highest age-standardized prevalence rate (150.53 per 100,000), while low-SDI regions had the lowest (140.26 per 100,000), with relatively faster increases in low- and low-middle-SDI regions. The highest age-standardized prevalence and incidence rates were observed in Tianjin, Liaoning, Xinjiang, and Hainan. Besides, mortality decreased from 1990 to 2023 in all provinces except Hebei and Jiangsu. In decomposition analyses, changes in age-specific rates contributed most to increases in prevalent and incident cases, whereas population aging contributed most to changes in deaths, DALYs, YLLs, and YLDs. By 2050, the numbers of prevalent cases, incident cases, deaths, and DALYs were projected to reach 6891.38 thousand, 759.37 thousand, 91.66 thousand, and 2528.54 thousand, respectively. In addition, age-standardized prevalence and incidence rates were projected to increase, whereas age-standardized mortality and DALY rates were projected to decrease.
Conclusions: From 1990 to 2023, China experienced a substantial increase in PD burden accompanied by a shift toward a disability-dominated burden, characterized by rising age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and YLDs, but declining mortality and YLLs. Projections through 2050 indicate that population aging will remain the primary driver of future increases in PD burden, underscoring the need for strengthened long-term care, rehabilitation, and region-specific prevention strategies.
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BibTeX
@article{zhao2026trends,
title = {{Trends and future projections of Parkinson’s disease burden in China: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023}},
author = {Zhe Zhao and Ai-Nan Jia and Wen Ma and Xiao-Hui Xu and Mai-Geng Zhou and Jun-Liang Yuan},
journal = {Military Medical Research},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.mmr.2026.100077},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mmr.2026.100077},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Trends and future projections of Parkinson’s disease burden in China: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
AU - Zhe Zhao
AU - Ai-Nan Jia
AU - Wen Ma
AU - Xiao-Hui Xu
AU - Mai-Geng Zhou
AU - Jun-Liang Yuan
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/27
JO - Military Medical Research
DO - 10.1016/j.mmr.2026.100077
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mmr.2026.100077
AB - Background: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a major public health burden in China. We aimed to analyze temporal trends in PD burden across China from 1990 to 2023, and project the future burden through 2050. Methods: Using data from the 2023 Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2023) database, prevalence, incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) of PD in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities, and the two special administrative regions (SAR) of Hong Kong and Macao of China from 1990 to 2023 were analyzed. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) and the average annual percent change (AAPCs) were calculated. Changes in case numbers were decomposed using a Das Gupta framework, and future burden to 2050 was projected using a probabilistic model-averaging approach. Results: From 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and YLD rates of PD increased in China, whereas the age-standardized mortality, YLL, and DALY rates decreased. The number of people living with PD increased from 781.29 thousand (95% UI 629.39–973.58) in 1990 to 3445.69 thousand (95% UI 2804.28–4243.67) in 2023, and incident cases increased from 99.51 thousand (95% UI 82.51–118.00) in 1990 to 379.69 thousand (95% UI 319.28–447.58) in 2023. The age-standardized prevalence rate increased from 106.56 per 100,000 (95% UI 86.16–131.29) to 148.74 per 100,000 (95% UI 122.07–183.52) (AAPC=1.03%, 95% CI 0.98–1.09), whereas the age-standardized mortality, DALY, and YLL rates decreased from 4.69 per 100,000 to 3.78 per 100,000, 92.40 per 100,000 to 77.87 per 100,000, and 77.37 per 100,000 to 56.81 per 100,000, respectively. The age-standardized YLD rate increased from 15.03 per 100,000 to 21.07 per 100,000. Males had consistently higher ASRs than females, although the prevalence rate increased faster in females than in males (AAPC: 1.14% vs. 0.86%, P<0.001). In 2023, PD prevalence increased with age, whereas incident cases peaked at ages 70–74 years and deaths at ages 80–84 years. High-middle-Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions had the highest age-standardized prevalence rate (150.53 per 100,000), while low-SDI regions had the lowest (140.26 per 100,000), with relatively faster increases in low- and low-middle-SDI regions. The highest age-standardized prevalence and incidence rates were observed in Tianjin, Liaoning, Xinjiang, and Hainan. Besides, mortality decreased from 1990 to 2023 in all provinces except Hebei and Jiangsu. In decomposition analyses, changes in age-specific rates contributed most to increases in prevalent and incident cases, whereas population aging contributed most to changes in deaths, DALYs, YLLs, and YLDs. By 2050, the numbers of prevalent cases, incident cases, deaths, and DALYs were projected to reach 6891.38 thousand, 759.37 thousand, 91.66 thousand, and 2528.54 thousand, respectively. In addition, age-standardized prevalence and incidence rates were projected to increase, whereas age-standardized mortality and DALY rates were projected to decrease. Conclusions: From 1990 to 2023, China experienced a substantial increase in PD burden accompanied by a shift toward a disability-dominated burden, characterized by rising age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and YLDs, but declining mortality and YLLs. Projections through 2050 indicate that population aging will remain the primary driver of future increases in PD burden, underscoring the need for strengthened long-term care, rehabilitation, and region-specific prevention strategies.
SN - 2095-7467
SN - 2054-9369
ER -