Seasonal variations of Triatoma dimidiata demography and Trypanosoma cruzi transmission within its multi-host community in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico: Insights from an integrative SIR eco-epidemiological modelling
Abstract
Chagas disease is a zoonotic disease affecting 7 million people worldwide, mostly in Latin America. The causative agent, Trypanosoma cruzi, is transmitted by triatomine vectors feeding on a high diversity of vertebrate species. To understand its complex transmission dynamics is critical to assess disease risk and potential control strategies. We expanded a previous SI model of T. cruzi transmission in a typical synanthropic and domesticated host community into a SIR model to account for the effect of seasonal variations in the stage-structured vector demography and for the within-host parasite dynamics. The model was parameterized by using data on Triatoma dimidiata and hosts populations accumulated over the past 20 years in villages of the Yucatan peninsula, Mexico. Our modelling successfully reproduced 86.5% of the seasonal variations in vector abundance typically observed in those villages, with a peak of abundance during the warm and dry season (March to May), and it provided the first predictions of seasonal variations in the local T. cruzi transmission. Along with their abundance, vector infection was anticipated to rise by 23% from March to June, which closely matches a 19% increase in the field and led to a higher risk of T. cruzi transmission to all competent hosts. During this 3-months period, we predicted a two-fold increase in the incidence of T. cruzi, so that 39% of the yearly new infections occurred. Finally, sensitivity analyses provided evidence that reducing by 50% the current abundance of dogs, rodents, and increasing the current abundance of avians by 50% could reduce T. cruzi yearly incidence by up to ~38%, ~ 95%, and ~83%, respectively, supporting a promising potential for zooprophylactic control strategies that remain to be validated by empirical field studies. These findings strongly support the implementation of educational and empowerment strategies embedded in One Health approach to sustainably interrupt Chagas disease intra-domiciliary transmission.
Related
- The Pampa del Indio Project: long-term variations of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in Triatoma sordida, a non-target invasive vector.
- A Stratified Worm Burden Framework for Endemic Equilibria, Demography, and Mass Drug Administration: Linking Classical Macroparasite Models to Transmission Dynamics
- Placental immunopathology and congenital transmission of Zika virus and Trypanosoma cruzi: comparative mechanisms, immune disturbances, and potential co-infection scenarios
- Integrative bioinformatics analysis of Lianmei granules in diabetic nephropathy : Epidemiological and molecular insights
- Accounting for the long-distance transmission route: An epidemiological model of airborne disease transmission in hospitals
BibTeX
@article{zitoun2026seasonal,
title = {{Seasonal variations of Triatoma dimidiata demography and Trypanosoma cruzi transmission within its multi-host community in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico: Insights from an integrative SIR eco-epidemiological modelling}},
author = {Jean-Loup Zitoun and Eric Dumonteil and Julio Vladimir Cruz-Chan and Etienne Waleckx and Sébastien Gourbière},
journal = {PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases},
year = {2026},
month = jul,
doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0014500},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05779298v1},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Seasonal variations of Triatoma dimidiata demography and Trypanosoma cruzi transmission within its multi-host community in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico: Insights from an integrative SIR eco-epidemiological modelling
AU - Jean-Loup Zitoun
AU - Eric Dumonteil
AU - Julio Vladimir Cruz-Chan
AU - Etienne Waleckx
AU - Sébastien Gourbière
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/07/15
JO - PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
DO - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0014500
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05779298v1
AB - Chagas disease is a zoonotic disease affecting 7 million people worldwide, mostly in Latin America. The causative agent, Trypanosoma cruzi, is transmitted by triatomine vectors feeding on a high diversity of vertebrate species. To understand its complex transmission dynamics is critical to assess disease risk and potential control strategies. We expanded a previous SI model of T. cruzi transmission in a typical synanthropic and domesticated host community into a SIR model to account for the effect of seasonal variations in the stage-structured vector demography and for the within-host parasite dynamics. The model was parameterized by using data on Triatoma dimidiata and hosts populations accumulated over the past 20 years in villages of the Yucatan peninsula, Mexico. Our modelling successfully reproduced 86.5% of the seasonal variations in vector abundance typically observed in those villages, with a peak of abundance during the warm and dry season (March to May), and it provided the first predictions of seasonal variations in the local T. cruzi transmission. Along with their abundance, vector infection was anticipated to rise by 23% from March to June, which closely matches a 19% increase in the field and led to a higher risk of T. cruzi transmission to all competent hosts. During this 3-months period, we predicted a two-fold increase in the incidence of T. cruzi, so that 39% of the yearly new infections occurred. Finally, sensitivity analyses provided evidence that reducing by 50% the current abundance of dogs, rodents, and increasing the current abundance of avians by 50% could reduce T. cruzi yearly incidence by up to ~38%, ~ 95%, and ~83%, respectively, supporting a promising potential for zooprophylactic control strategies that remain to be validated by empirical field studies. These findings strongly support the implementation of educational and empowerment strategies embedded in One Health approach to sustainably interrupt Chagas disease intra-domiciliary transmission.
SN - 1935-2727
SN - 1935-2735
ER -