Drivers of zoonotic spillover at human–domestic animal–wildlife interfaces: a multi-species model incorporating wildlife chronic stress
10 affiliations
- 1Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University 1 , Umeå, Västerbotten County, Sweden
- 2Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, Mathematics Institute and School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick 3 , Coventry, UK
- 3Interdisciplinary Center for Scientific Computing, Heidelberg University 4 , Heidelberg, Baden-Württemberg, Germany
- 4Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics, Umeå University 2 , Umeå, Västerbotten County, Sweden
- 5Complexity Science and Evolution Unit, Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University 5 , Onna, Japan
- 6Advancing Systems Analysis Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis 6 , Laxenburg, Austria
- 7Department of Wildlife Diseases, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW) in the Forschungsverbund Berlin e.V. 7 , Berlin, Germany
- 8Department of Veterinary Medicine, Freie Universität Berlin 8 , Berlin, Germany
- 9Norwegian Veterinary Institute 9 , Ås, Norway
- 10Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences - Umea Campus 10 , Umeå, Västerbotten County, Sweden
Abstract
Zoonotic disease emergence at the wildlife–domestic animal–human interface results from a complex interplay of ecological, physiological and anthropogenic factors. Here, we have developed a multi-environment, multi-host compartmental model to identify key drivers of spillover risk across urban, rural and natural environments. The framework incorporates heterogeneous host populations, inter-species contacts and host movement, and includes wildlife chronic stress as one factor influencing susceptibility, transmissibility and recovery. Sensitivity analyses show that domestic animal populations at agricultural interfaces strongly amplify spillover risk through their recovery dynamics and per-contact transmission probabilities, while within-wildlife transmission across environments also shapes system dynamics. Chronic stress effects can further increase spillover risk, and the model indicates that reducing wildlife stress alongside improving domestic animal health and management can markedly lower the likelihood of cross-species transmission. These findings highlight the importance of maintaining ecological conditions that reduce chronic physiological stress in wildlife populations and integrating physiological and ecological data into epidemiological modelling. Such models can inform both bottom-up interventions targeting domestic animals and top-down strategies that sustain resilient wildlife communities and, thereby, mitigate zoonotic spillover.
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BibTeX
@article{stafford2026drivers,
title = {{Drivers of zoonotic spillover at human–domestic animal–wildlife interfaces: a multi-species model incorporating wildlife chronic stress}},
author = {Erin Stafford and Junwen Guo and Peter Fransson and Åke Brännström and Alex D. Greenwood and Kyrre Kausrud and Henrik Sjödin},
journal = {Royal Society Open Science},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.1098/rsos.260184},
url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsos/article/13/11/260184/484011/Drivers-of-zoonotic-spillover-at-human-domestic},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Drivers of zoonotic spillover at human–domestic animal–wildlife interfaces: a multi-species model incorporating wildlife chronic stress
AU - Erin Stafford
AU - Junwen Guo
AU - Peter Fransson
AU - Åke Brännström
AU - Alex D. Greenwood
AU - Kyrre Kausrud
AU - Henrik Sjödin
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/04
JO - Royal Society Open Science
DO - 10.1098/rsos.260184
UR - https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsos/article/13/11/260184/484011/Drivers-of-zoonotic-spillover-at-human-domestic
AB - Zoonotic disease emergence at the wildlife–domestic animal–human interface results from a complex interplay of ecological, physiological and anthropogenic factors. Here, we have developed a multi-environment, multi-host compartmental model to identify key drivers of spillover risk across urban, rural and natural environments. The framework incorporates heterogeneous host populations, inter-species contacts and host movement, and includes wildlife chronic stress as one factor influencing susceptibility, transmissibility and recovery. Sensitivity analyses show that domestic animal populations at agricultural interfaces strongly amplify spillover risk through their recovery dynamics and per-contact transmission probabilities, while within-wildlife transmission across environments also shapes system dynamics. Chronic stress effects can further increase spillover risk, and the model indicates that reducing wildlife stress alongside improving domestic animal health and management can markedly lower the likelihood of cross-species transmission. These findings highlight the importance of maintaining ecological conditions that reduce chronic physiological stress in wildlife populations and integrating physiological and ecological data into epidemiological modelling. Such models can inform both bottom-up interventions targeting domestic animals and top-down strategies that sustain resilient wildlife communities and, thereby, mitigate zoonotic spillover.
SN - 2054-5703
ER -