Changing wind hazards for Mediterranean airports under cyclone analogues: the case of Cyclone Harry (2026)
Abstract
Mediterranean storms and cyclones can generate hazardous wind conditions with major implications for aviation, yet the link between large-scale dynamics and airport-scale impacts remains poorly quantified. Here, we analyse Cyclone Harry, a January 2026 Mediterranean cyclone that affected several major airports, and place it in a climatological context using ERA5 reanalysis and analogue-based composites for past (1950 to 1987) and present (1988 to 2025) conditions. We examine the synoptic structure, low-level dynamics, thermodynamic environment, and airport-scale impacts through wind speed, bulk wind shear, and runway-relative crosswind. Cyclone Harry developed in a dynamically enhanced environment marked by a strong gusts (30 m s -1 ), large vertical wind shear (20-25 m s -1 ), and warm sea surface temperature (+16-18 °C). Compared with past analogues, present-day configurations show stronger low-level winds (∼ 30%), greater atmospheric moisture (∼ 20%), and enhanced vertical coupling (∼ 30%). At airport scale, wind speed, shear, and crosswind distributions shift toward higher values (up to ∼ 60%)and greater variability, especially under severe disruption conditions. These results indicate that Mediterranean aviation hazards are increasingly shaped by a modified atmospheric background, where dynamical and thermodynamic changes amplify wind-related risks and call for improved adaptation strategies.
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BibTeX
@article{alberti2026changing,
title = {{Changing wind hazards for Mediterranean airports under cyclone analogues: the case of Cyclone Harry (2026)}},
author = {Tommaso Alberti and Davide Faranda},
journal = {Environmental Research Communications},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1088/2515-7620/aeaf48},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05640190v2},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Changing wind hazards for Mediterranean airports under cyclone analogues: the case of Cyclone Harry (2026)
AU - Tommaso Alberti
AU - Davide Faranda
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/13
JO - Environmental Research Communications
DO - 10.1088/2515-7620/aeaf48
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05640190v2
AB - Mediterranean storms and cyclones can generate hazardous wind conditions with major implications for aviation, yet the link between large-scale dynamics and airport-scale impacts remains poorly quantified. Here, we analyse Cyclone Harry, a January 2026 Mediterranean cyclone that affected several major airports, and place it in a climatological context using ERA5 reanalysis and analogue-based composites for past (1950 to 1987) and present (1988 to 2025) conditions. We examine the synoptic structure, low-level dynamics, thermodynamic environment, and airport-scale impacts through wind speed, bulk wind shear, and runway-relative crosswind. Cyclone Harry developed in a dynamically enhanced environment marked by a strong gusts (30 m s -1 ), large vertical wind shear (20-25 m s -1 ), and warm sea surface temperature (+16-18 °C). Compared with past analogues, present-day configurations show stronger low-level winds (∼ 30%), greater atmospheric moisture (∼ 20%), and enhanced vertical coupling (∼ 30%). At airport scale, wind speed, shear, and crosswind distributions shift toward higher values (up to ∼ 60%)and greater variability, especially under severe disruption conditions. These results indicate that Mediterranean aviation hazards are increasingly shaped by a modified atmospheric background, where dynamical and thermodynamic changes amplify wind-related risks and call for improved adaptation strategies.
SN - 2515-7620
ER -