A Bayesian hierarchical model for meta-analysis
Abstract
Meta-analysis is a key statistical tool for synthesizing clinical trial data to evaluate treatment effects, yet traditional methods such as fixed-effect and random-effects models often fail to handle heterogeneity, study-level covariates, or hierarchical structures effectively. To overcome these limitations, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical meta-analysis framework for robust parameter estimation on small samples and utilized analytical integration for efficient inference. Simulation studies indicated robust estimation of the proposed model. We applied it to the efficacy and safety profiles of Oxcarbazepine (OXC) and Carbamazepine (CBZ) in epilepsy treatment. Gibbs sampling and analytical integration produced nearly identical results across all three clinical datasets. The results indicated no significant difference between OXC and CBZ in complete seizure control, while OXC was significantly associated with a higher probability of at least a 50% reduction in seizure frequency and a lower risk of side effects than CBZ. The code and relevant data used in this study are openly available on GitHub at https://github.com/xsjk/HierarchicalMetaAnalysis.
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BibTeX
@misc{dai2026bayesian,
title = {{A Bayesian hierarchical model for meta-analysis}},
author = {Jing Dai and Sijie Xu and Shufei Ge},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2606.16224},
eprint = {2606.16224},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.16224},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - A Bayesian hierarchical model for meta-analysis
AU - Jing Dai
AU - Sijie Xu
AU - Shufei Ge
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/01
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2606.16224
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.16224
AB - Meta-analysis is a key statistical tool for synthesizing clinical trial data to evaluate treatment effects, yet traditional methods such as fixed-effect and random-effects models often fail to handle heterogeneity, study-level covariates, or hierarchical structures effectively. To overcome these limitations, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical meta-analysis framework for robust parameter estimation on small samples and utilized analytical integration for efficient inference. Simulation studies indicated robust estimation of the proposed model. We applied it to the efficacy and safety profiles of Oxcarbazepine (OXC) and Carbamazepine (CBZ) in epilepsy treatment. Gibbs sampling and analytical integration produced nearly identical results across all three clinical datasets. The results indicated no significant difference between OXC and CBZ in complete seizure control, while OXC was significantly associated with a higher probability of at least a 50% reduction in seizure frequency and a lower risk of side effects than CBZ. The code and relevant data used in this study are openly available on GitHub at https://github.com/xsjk/HierarchicalMetaAnalysis.
ER -