Charting the life of Billboard hits through memory, turnover and predictability
5 affiliations
- 1Departamento de Física, Universidade Estadual de Maringá 1 , Maringá, Paraná, Brazil
- 2Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Maribor 2 , Maribor, Slovenia
- 3Community Healthcare Center Dr. Adolf Drolc Maribor 3 , Ulica talcev 9, 2000 Maribor, Slovenia
- 4Department of Physics, Kyung Hee University 4 , Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul 02447, Republic of Korea
- 5University College, Korea University 5 , Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Republic of Korea
Abstract
Rankings shape the visibility and success of cultural products, yet their temporal dynamics remain underexplored when comparing distinct ranked objects within the same domain. Here, we use nearly seven decades of Billboard Hot 100 songs and six decades of Billboard 200 albums to investigate how success emerges, persists and differs between songs and albums. We find that albums exhibit a heavier-tailed permanence distribution and re-enter the charts more often than songs, whereas songs typically have longer uninterrupted runs. Similarity between successive charts decays much faster for songs than for albums, suggesting that individual hits reflect shorter-lived collective attention, while albums retain longer cultural memory. Rank-turbulence divergence (RTD) shows that consecutive charts are similar, but that top positions are dominated more by rank reshuffling than by turnover. Entropy-based analyses reveal high uncertainty in rank movements, with distinct historical patterns for songs and albums and a strong dependence on trajectory length. Clustering of trajectories shows that chart success is organized into a small number of typical pathways, including canonical rise-and-fall trajectories, high-end persistence and monotonic decline. Together, these results show that musical charts are not merely records of popularity, but dynamic memory systems in which attention, turnover and predictability interact differently for songs and albums.
Versions
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BibTeX
@article{pessa2026charting,
title = {{Charting the life of Billboard hits through memory, turnover and predictability}},
author = {Arthur A. B. Pessa and Angelo A. Flores and Matjaž Perc and Haroldo V. Ribeiro},
journal = {Royal Society Open Science},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1098/rsos.261312},
url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsos/article/13/9/261312/483422/Charting-the-life-of-Billboard-hits-through-memory},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Charting the life of Billboard hits through memory, turnover and predictability
AU - Arthur A. B. Pessa
AU - Angelo A. Flores
AU - Matjaž Perc
AU - Haroldo V. Ribeiro
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/30
JO - Royal Society Open Science
DO - 10.1098/rsos.261312
UR - https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsos/article/13/9/261312/483422/Charting-the-life-of-Billboard-hits-through-memory
AB - Rankings shape the visibility and success of cultural products, yet their temporal dynamics remain underexplored when comparing distinct ranked objects within the same domain. Here, we use nearly seven decades of Billboard Hot 100 songs and six decades of Billboard 200 albums to investigate how success emerges, persists and differs between songs and albums. We find that albums exhibit a heavier-tailed permanence distribution and re-enter the charts more often than songs, whereas songs typically have longer uninterrupted runs. Similarity between successive charts decays much faster for songs than for albums, suggesting that individual hits reflect shorter-lived collective attention, while albums retain longer cultural memory. Rank-turbulence divergence (RTD) shows that consecutive charts are similar, but that top positions are dominated more by rank reshuffling than by turnover. Entropy-based analyses reveal high uncertainty in rank movements, with distinct historical patterns for songs and albums and a strong dependence on trajectory length. Clustering of trajectories shows that chart success is organized into a small number of typical pathways, including canonical rise-and-fall trajectories, high-end persistence and monotonic decline. Together, these results show that musical charts are not merely records of popularity, but dynamic memory systems in which attention, turnover and predictability interact differently for songs and albums.
SN - 2054-5703
ER -