Decision analysis in support of proactive planning for chronic wasting disease in Vermont, USA
- 1U.S. Geological Survey
Abstract
Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal, transmissible disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and related species, is spreading across North America but has not yet been detected in Vermont, United States (U.S.). The Vermont Department of Fish and Wildlife, along with partner agencies, wants to develop a proactive prevention and response plan in anticipation of the eventual detection of the disease. Between September 2023 and September 2025, staff from the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Vermont facilitated a structured decision-making (SDM) process with seven State and Federal agencies that have jurisdiction over some aspect of CWD management in Vermont. The aim of this process was to generate and evaluate alternative response plans against a range of long-term objectives important to the agencies. To aid in the evaluation of the alternatives, we developed a linked set of models for white-tailed deer population and disease dynamics, hunter participation and health, forest health, economic consequences, and agricultural opportunities related to the actions being contemplated as part of the response plan. We evaluated over 256 different permutations of management actions and used multi-criteria decision analysis, a branch of decision analysis designed to help decision makers navigate tradeoffs among competing objectives, to summarize the performance of those alternative strategies against the desired outcomes. Proactive actions, those designed to slow the arrival of CWD to Vermont, were moderately effective, but the most important proactive action was surveillance to detect the disease early after arrival, which triggered response actions after detection. With the insights generated by the SDM process and the results of the analyses, the participating agencies were able to identify a preferred strategy and outline the elements of a proactive response plan. This report describes the SDM process, the technical details of the modeling work, and the results of the analyses.
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BibTeX
@misc{cook2026decision,
title = {{Decision analysis in support of proactive planning for chronic wasting disease in Vermont, USA}},
author = {J. D. Cook and A. Stanley and B. Mosher and N. Fortin and K. Gieder and D. Sausville and J. Austin and S. Agius and T. Appleton and J. Comeau and K. Haas and P. Hamelin and M. Kunkel and N. Kwit and M. Cahill and S. Langston and M. Leonard and K. Levine and K. McNamara and M. Naughton and F. Pogmore and J. Stedman and K. Sturm and M. C. Runge},
howpublished = {bioRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = jul,
doi = {10.64898/2026.07.17.739197},
url = {https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.07.17.739197v2},
note = {CC0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Decision analysis in support of proactive planning for chronic wasting disease in Vermont, USA
AU - J. D. Cook
AU - A. Stanley
AU - B. Mosher
AU - N. Fortin
AU - K. Gieder
AU - D. Sausville
AU - J. Austin
AU - S. Agius
AU - T. Appleton
AU - J. Comeau
AU - K. Haas
AU - P. Hamelin
AU - M. Kunkel
AU - N. Kwit
AU - M. Cahill
AU - S. Langston
AU - M. Leonard
AU - K. Levine
AU - K. McNamara
AU - M. Naughton
AU - F. Pogmore
AU - J. Stedman
AU - K. Sturm
AU - M. C. Runge
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/07/17
PB - bioRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.07.17.739197
UR - https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.07.17.739197v2
AB - Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal, transmissible disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and related species, is spreading across North America but has not yet been detected in Vermont, United States (U.S.). The Vermont Department of Fish and Wildlife, along with partner agencies, wants to develop a proactive prevention and response plan in anticipation of the eventual detection of the disease. Between September 2023 and September 2025, staff from the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Vermont facilitated a structured decision-making (SDM) process with seven State and Federal agencies that have jurisdiction over some aspect of CWD management in Vermont. The aim of this process was to generate and evaluate alternative response plans against a range of long-term objectives important to the agencies. To aid in the evaluation of the alternatives, we developed a linked set of models for white-tailed deer population and disease dynamics, hunter participation and health, forest health, economic consequences, and agricultural opportunities related to the actions being contemplated as part of the response plan. We evaluated over 256 different permutations of management actions and used multi-criteria decision analysis, a branch of decision analysis designed to help decision makers navigate tradeoffs among competing objectives, to summarize the performance of those alternative strategies against the desired outcomes. Proactive actions, those designed to slow the arrival of CWD to Vermont, were moderately effective, but the most important proactive action was surveillance to detect the disease early after arrival, which triggered response actions after detection. With the insights generated by the SDM process and the results of the analyses, the participating agencies were able to identify a preferred strategy and outline the elements of a proactive response plan. This report describes the SDM process, the technical details of the modeling work, and the results of the analyses.
ER -