Probabilistic inversion of sea level, tectonics, and coral reef morphogenesis

Abstract

Coastal landforms constitute a worldwide archive that intricately records past sea level, tectonics, and geomorphic processes, yet unraveling the complex interplay of these processes driving the morphogenesis of the shorelines remains a challenge. Albeit forward landscape evolution modeling has proven successful in deciphering either sea-level, tectonics, or geomorphic processes independently, this strategy rests upon hypotheses regarding the other two aspects. We circumvent this limitation by inverting coral reef terrace morphologies using the new model RoSETTA (Resolving Sea level, Ecosystems and Tectonics from Terrace Analysis), which produces probabilistic reconstructions of past sea level, tectonic vertical motion, erosion processes, and reef growth rates from coastal landforms. We first benchmark RoSETTA on synthetic terraces sequences and then on the canonical landforms of Sumba island, Indonesia. Beyond reconstructions, our probabilistic approach allows to highlight periods of time and sea level that can confidently be resolved from the geomorphological archive, and conversely identifies periods where the archive is insufficient to be conclusive. A successful remedy is to jointly invert multiple profiles using RoSETTA, improving the confidence of the results. We provide here a probabilistic reconstruction of continuous relative sea-level history and rates of change over the Late Quaternary. Periods of time with sea-level rise rates analogous to present day and projected rises are identified, and coral reef responses to such conditions are quantified over millennial timescales, indicating that Sumba-type coral reefs could hardly keep-up with IPCC-predicted rates of sea-level rise for the next century.

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BibTeX RIS

BibTeX

@article{boucharat2026probabilistic,
  title = {{Probabilistic inversion of sea level, tectonics, and coral reef morphogenesis}},
  author = {Yannick Boucharat and Laurent Husson and Gino de Gelder and Anne-Morwenn Pastier and Denovan Chauveau and Thomas Bodin and Christine Authemayou and Joseph Martinod and Kevin Pedoja and Tubagus Solihuddin and Sri Yudawati Cahyarini},
  journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
  year = {2026},
  month = may,
  doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105520},
  url = {https://hal.science/hal-05847119v1},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}

RIS

TY  - JOUR
TI  - Probabilistic inversion of sea level, tectonics, and coral reef morphogenesis
AU  - Yannick Boucharat
AU  - Laurent Husson
AU  - Gino de Gelder
AU  - Anne-Morwenn Pastier
AU  - Denovan Chauveau
AU  - Thomas Bodin
AU  - Christine Authemayou
AU  - Joseph Martinod
AU  - Kevin Pedoja
AU  - Tubagus Solihuddin
AU  - Sri Yudawati Cahyarini
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/05/13
JO  - Global and Planetary Change
DO  - 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105520
UR  - https://hal.science/hal-05847119v1
AB  - Coastal landforms constitute a worldwide archive that intricately records past sea level, tectonics, and geomorphic processes, yet unraveling the complex interplay of these processes driving the morphogenesis of the shorelines remains a challenge. Albeit forward landscape evolution modeling has proven successful in deciphering either sea-level, tectonics, or geomorphic processes independently, this strategy rests upon hypotheses regarding the other two aspects. We circumvent this limitation by inverting coral reef terrace morphologies using the new model RoSETTA (Resolving Sea level, Ecosystems and Tectonics from Terrace Analysis), which produces probabilistic reconstructions of past sea level, tectonic vertical motion, erosion processes, and reef growth rates from coastal landforms. We first benchmark RoSETTA on synthetic terraces sequences and then on the canonical landforms of Sumba island, Indonesia. Beyond reconstructions, our probabilistic approach allows to highlight periods of time and sea level that can confidently be resolved from the geomorphological archive, and conversely identifies periods where the archive is insufficient to be conclusive. A successful remedy is to jointly invert multiple profiles using RoSETTA, improving the confidence of the results. We provide here a probabilistic reconstruction of continuous relative sea-level history and rates of change over the Late Quaternary. Periods of time with sea-level rise rates analogous to present day and projected rises are identified, and coral reef responses to such conditions are quantified over millennial timescales, indicating that Sumba-type coral reefs could hardly keep-up with IPCC-predicted rates of sea-level rise for the next century.
SN  - 0921-8181
ER  -

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