Data-driven prediction of atomic-oxygen erosion yield in polymers from bulk physical properties
Abstract
Atomic oxygen (AO) erodes polymer surfaces in low Earth orbit, but durability data are limited. We evaluated a regression ensemble trained on 37 MISSE-2 polymers using eight selected bulk properties and five elemental-composition ratios. Its archived leave-one-out R^2(log) was 0.768; this estimate is conditional on feature selection using the complete training table. For nine post-MISSE-2 polymers, the ensemble gave R^2(log) = -0.037 and all predictions were within a factor of two. The training arithmetic-mean baseline also met that tolerance for all nine, highlighting the limited discrimination provided by their narrow target range. Ground-based comparisons included four PLAVIS grades. For an out-of-training mystery polymer with undisclosed composition, the predicted erosion yield was within a factor of 1.92 of the ground-based measurement. Conflicting PLAVIS measurement records prevent a definitive residue-erosion ordering or ground-validation score. Thermal residue, SEM contrast and surface chemistry provide distinct observational evidence; they do not establish a protective-layer mechanism. The results support further evaluation of orbital-data screening models with reconciled measurement records and prospectively fixed inputs..
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BibTeX
@misc{choi2026datadriven,
title = {{Data-driven prediction of atomic-oxygen erosion yield in polymers from bulk physical properties}},
author = {Youngwoo Choi and Doeun Koo and Seungbum Hong and Hyun Jung Kim},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.07547},
eprint = {2610.07547},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.07547},
note = {CC0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Data-driven prediction of atomic-oxygen erosion yield in polymers from bulk physical properties
AU - Youngwoo Choi
AU - Doeun Koo
AU - Seungbum Hong
AU - Hyun Jung Kim
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/06
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.07547
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.07547
AB - Atomic oxygen (AO) erodes polymer surfaces in low Earth orbit, but durability data are limited. We evaluated a regression ensemble trained on 37 MISSE-2 polymers using eight selected bulk properties and five elemental-composition ratios. Its archived leave-one-out R^2(log) was 0.768; this estimate is conditional on feature selection using the complete training table. For nine post-MISSE-2 polymers, the ensemble gave R^2(log) = -0.037 and all predictions were within a factor of two. The training arithmetic-mean baseline also met that tolerance for all nine, highlighting the limited discrimination provided by their narrow target range. Ground-based comparisons included four PLAVIS grades. For an out-of-training mystery polymer with undisclosed composition, the predicted erosion yield was within a factor of 1.92 of the ground-based measurement. Conflicting PLAVIS measurement records prevent a definitive residue-erosion ordering or ground-validation score. Thermal residue, SEM contrast and surface chemistry provide distinct observational evidence; they do not establish a protective-layer mechanism. The results support further evaluation of orbital-data screening models with reconciled measurement records and prospectively fixed inputs..
ER -