Association between changes in obesity- and lipid-related indices and the risk of cardiovascular disease: a prospective cohort study in Northwest China
- 1Institute of Epidemiology and Statistics, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University , ,
Abstract
Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major global health burden. Traditional indicators inadequately capture CVD risk. This study evaluated the association between dynamic changes in novel obesity- and lipid-related indices and CVD incidence.
Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted with 19,315 CVD-free participants from the Jinchang Cohort in Northwest China. Changes in seven indices—WHtR, METS-VF, CVAI, BRI, TyG, TyG-WC, and TyG-BMI—from baseline to follow-up were classified via K-means clustering, and cumulative indices were calculated. Multivariable logistic and restricted cubic spline models assessed associations with incident CVD. Predictive performance was evaluated using AUC, NRI, and IDI.
Results: Over a median follow-up of 66 months, 3,200 (16.57%) participants developed CVD. The highest change classes of all indices showed significantly increased CVD risk, with the strongest associations observed for TyG-BMI (OR: 3.988, 95% CI: 3.419–4.650), TyG-WC (OR: 3.797, 95% CI: 3.215–4.484), and CVAI (OR: 3.695, 95% CI: 3.085–4.426). A significant dose-response relationship was observed for cumulative indices. Changes in CVAI (AUC: 0.642) and cumulative METS-VF (AUC: 0.659) demonstrated the highest predictive ability. Adding these indices to a model of traditional risk factors significantly improved the AUC, NRI, and IDI for CVD prediction (all p < 0.001). Subgroup analyses were consistent.
Conclusions: Longitudinal increases in obesity- and lipid-related indices may provide modest incremental value for CVD risk stratification when added to traditional risk factors, but their discriminative ability is moderate and further validation is required before clinical application.
Related
- Association of a ‘three meals and sleep routine’ lifestyle intervention with weight and metabolic health in children with obesity: a prospective, single-arm pilot study
- Association of sleep time with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among individuals with advanced cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome : A NHANES-based prospective cohort study
- Association of 24 h Pulse Pressure Derived from Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring with All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in Patients Undergoing Peritoneal Dialysis: A Prospective Cohort Study
- Association of physical activity with all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality among adults with diabetes: Mexico City Prospective Study
- The cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, and glucose index and its derivatives related to obesity and inflammation as novel metabolic markers for predicting new-onset cardiovascular-liver-metabolic multimorbidity: A prospective cohort study.
BibTeX
@article{you2026association,
title = {{Association between changes in obesity- and lipid-related indices and the risk of cardiovascular disease: a prospective cohort study in Northwest China}},
author = {Jinlong You and Wu Ding and Xue Wang and Jing Tang and Xiuqian Li and Rui Wang and Yuanyuan Li and Yana Bai and Minzhen Wang and Shan Zheng},
journal = {Frontiers in endocrinology},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.3389/fendo.2026.1975120},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13690539},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Association between changes in obesity- and lipid-related indices and the risk of cardiovascular disease: a prospective cohort study in Northwest China
AU - Jinlong You
AU - Wu Ding
AU - Xue Wang
AU - Jing Tang
AU - Xiuqian Li
AU - Rui Wang
AU - Yuanyuan Li
AU - Yana Bai
AU - Minzhen Wang
AU - Shan Zheng
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/09
JO - Frontiers in endocrinology
DO - 10.3389/fendo.2026.1975120
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13690539
AB - Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major global health burden. Traditional indicators inadequately capture CVD risk. This study evaluated the association between dynamic changes in novel obesity- and lipid-related indices and CVD incidence. Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted with 19,315 CVD-free participants from the Jinchang Cohort in Northwest China. Changes in seven indices—WHtR, METS-VF, CVAI, BRI, TyG, TyG-WC, and TyG-BMI—from baseline to follow-up were classified via K-means clustering, and cumulative indices were calculated. Multivariable logistic and restricted cubic spline models assessed associations with incident CVD. Predictive performance was evaluated using AUC, NRI, and IDI. Results: Over a median follow-up of 66 months, 3,200 (16.57%) participants developed CVD. The highest change classes of all indices showed significantly increased CVD risk, with the strongest associations observed for TyG-BMI (OR: 3.988, 95% CI: 3.419–4.650), TyG-WC (OR: 3.797, 95% CI: 3.215–4.484), and CVAI (OR: 3.695, 95% CI: 3.085–4.426). A significant dose-response relationship was observed for cumulative indices. Changes in CVAI (AUC: 0.642) and cumulative METS-VF (AUC: 0.659) demonstrated the highest predictive ability. Adding these indices to a model of traditional risk factors significantly improved the AUC, NRI, and IDI for CVD prediction (all p < 0.001). Subgroup analyses were consistent. Conclusions: Longitudinal increases in obesity- and lipid-related indices may provide modest incremental value for CVD risk stratification when added to traditional risk factors, but their discriminative ability is moderate and further validation is required before clinical application.
SN - 1664-2392
ER -