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Peer-reviewedCC BYCommunications Earth & Environment

Human-induced subsidence exceeds sea-level rise in driving future coastal flood exposure in China’s Greater Bay Area

  • Xudong Wang1
  • Mi Jiang2
  • Leonard O. Ohenhen3
  • Zhou Wu1
  • Fengming Hui1
  • Xiao Cheng1
  • Zhiwei Li2
  • Xin Tian4
  • Ruya Xiao5
5 affiliations
  1. 1School of Geospatial Engineering and Science, Sun Yat-sen University
  2. 2School of Geosciences and Info-Physics, Central South University
  3. 3Department of Earth System Science, University of California
  4. 4School of Transportation, Southeast University
  5. 5School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Hohai University
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Abstract

Effective coastal flood risk assessments are essential for adapting to climate change-driven sea-level rise and other coastal hazards. However, regional-scale assessments often remain limited by the neglect of spatially variable land subsidence and oversimplified modelling approaches. Here we address these gaps by integrating high-resolution land subsidence observations with the latest coastal sea level altimetry and applying a physics-based model to assess future coastal flood exposure in the Greater Bay Area of China. Our results show that by 2050, the combined effects of subsidence and sea-level rise will expose an additional ~222 km2 of land and 228,900 people to coastal flooding. Human-induced subsidence is the dominant driver of this increase. Maintaining future flood exposure at present-day levels would require raising coastal land elevation by 0.45 m on average, 66.7% of which is attributable to subsidence, highlighting the need to explicitly account for spatially variable subsidence in regional coastal flood risk assessments.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{wang2026humaninduced,
  title = {{Human-induced subsidence exceeds sea-level rise in driving future coastal flood exposure in China’s Greater Bay Area}},
  author = {Xudong Wang and Mi Jiang and Leonard O. Ohenhen and Zhou Wu and Fengming Hui and Xiao Cheng and Zhiwei Li and Xin Tian and Ruya Xiao},
  journal = {Communications Earth \& Environment},
  year = {2026},
  month = jul,
  doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03787-3},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03787-3},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Human-induced subsidence exceeds sea-level rise in driving future coastal flood exposure in China’s Greater Bay Area
AU  - Xudong Wang
AU  - Mi Jiang
AU  - Leonard O. Ohenhen
AU  - Zhou Wu
AU  - Fengming Hui
AU  - Xiao Cheng
AU  - Zhiwei Li
AU  - Xin Tian
AU  - Ruya Xiao
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/07/01
JO  - Communications Earth & Environment
DO  - 10.1038/s43247-026-03787-3
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03787-3
AB  - Effective coastal flood risk assessments are essential for adapting to climate change-driven sea-level rise and other coastal hazards. However, regional-scale assessments often remain limited by the neglect of spatially variable land subsidence and oversimplified modelling approaches. Here we address these gaps by integrating high-resolution land subsidence observations with the latest coastal sea level altimetry and applying a physics-based model to assess future coastal flood exposure in the Greater Bay Area of China. Our results show that by 2050, the combined effects of subsidence and sea-level rise will expose an additional ~222 km2 of land and 228,900 people to coastal flooding. Human-induced subsidence is the dominant driver of this increase. Maintaining future flood exposure at present-day levels would require raising coastal land elevation by 0.45 m on average, 66.7% of which is attributable to subsidence, highlighting the need to explicitly account for spatially variable subsidence in regional coastal flood risk assessments.
SN  - 2662-4435
ER  -