Integrating Observational Datasets and CMIP6 Projections for Multi-Scale Drought Characterization: Evidence from Western Türkiye
6 affiliations
- 1Climate Change and Zero Waste Department, Manisa Metropolitan Municipality, Manisa 45000, Türkiye
- 2Department of City and Regional Planning, Dokuz Eylül University, Izmir 35210, Türkiye
- 3Department of Civil Engineering, Bingol University, Bingol 12000, Türkiye
- 4Department of Civil Engineering, İstanbul Gelişim University, Istanbul 34315, Türkiye
- 5Department of Geography, Nakhchivan State University, Nakhchivan AZ 7012, Azerbaijan
- 6Geography Department, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Igdir University, Igdir 76000, Türkiye
Abstract
Although drought is recognized as one of the major hydroclimatic hazards affecting the Mediterranean Basin, local-scale assessments to support planning for its agricultural, hydrological, and food security impacts remain limited. This study investigates historical and future drought dynamics in Manisa (Western Türkiye) using a multi-scale framework integrating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) with CMIP6 climate projections. A comprehensive dataset including ERA5-Land, CHIRPS, TerraClimate, and station observations was evaluated, revealing strong agreement in temperature but higher uncertainty in precipitation. SPI results indicate recurrent short-term droughts with extreme events reaching −2.5 in 2007–2008, alongside intensified long-term hydrological droughts since the early 1990s, while SPEI reveals a stronger temperature-driven drought signal, peaking near −2.0 during 2020–2024 as the most severe cumulative drought period in the past 40 years. Rapid wet–dry transitions have increased since 2000, indicating a more unstable hydroclimatic regime. Future projections (2025–2100) under a high-emission scenario suggest a progressive intensification of thermally driven drought conditions, with SPEI trends declining more steeply than SPI, indicating that evapotranspiration-driven water deficits may increasingly outweigh precipitation deficits as a driver of future drought risk. These findings offer localized, data-driven evidence relevant to climate adaptation and water resource planning in semi-arid Mediterranean agricultural regions.
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BibTeX
@article{aydemir2026integrating,
title = {{Integrating Observational Datasets and CMIP6 Projections for Multi-Scale Drought Characterization: Evidence from Western Türkiye}},
author = {Sena Aydemir and Çağlar Hocalar and Kürşat Şekerci and Yasin Paşa and Mehmet Ali Çelik},
journal = {Sustainability},
year = {2026},
month = aug,
doi = {10.3390/su18168543},
url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/su18168543},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Integrating Observational Datasets and CMIP6 Projections for Multi-Scale Drought Characterization: Evidence from Western Türkiye
AU - Sena Aydemir
AU - Çağlar Hocalar
AU - Kürşat Şekerci
AU - Yasin Paşa
AU - Mehmet Ali Çelik
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/08/20
JO - Sustainability
DO - 10.3390/su18168543
UR - https://doi.org/10.3390/su18168543
AB - Although drought is recognized as one of the major hydroclimatic hazards affecting the Mediterranean Basin, local-scale assessments to support planning for its agricultural, hydrological, and food security impacts remain limited. This study investigates historical and future drought dynamics in Manisa (Western Türkiye) using a multi-scale framework integrating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) with CMIP6 climate projections. A comprehensive dataset including ERA5-Land, CHIRPS, TerraClimate, and station observations was evaluated, revealing strong agreement in temperature but higher uncertainty in precipitation. SPI results indicate recurrent short-term droughts with extreme events reaching −2.5 in 2007–2008, alongside intensified long-term hydrological droughts since the early 1990s, while SPEI reveals a stronger temperature-driven drought signal, peaking near −2.0 during 2020–2024 as the most severe cumulative drought period in the past 40 years. Rapid wet–dry transitions have increased since 2000, indicating a more unstable hydroclimatic regime. Future projections (2025–2100) under a high-emission scenario suggest a progressive intensification of thermally driven drought conditions, with SPEI trends declining more steeply than SPI, indicating that evapotranspiration-driven water deficits may increasingly outweigh precipitation deficits as a driver of future drought risk. These findings offer localized, data-driven evidence relevant to climate adaptation and water resource planning in semi-arid Mediterranean agricultural regions.
SN - 2071-1050
ER -