Asymptotically Valid Laplace Variational Inference for Bayesian Nonparametric Clustering of Marked Point Patterns
Abstract
We introduce Dirichlet process mixtures of marked Poisson point processes, a Bayesian nonparametric model for clustering replicated marked point patterns. The model jointly infers latent cluster structure, the number of clusters, and continuous mark-specific intensity surfaces with uncertainty quantification, a combination existing methods provide only in part. Using a squared-link intensity whose likelihood is tractable without gridding or thinning, we develop, to our knowledge, the first variational Bayes method for clustering marked Poisson point processes. Its constrained Laplace approximation eliminates sign ambiguity and nodal lines by turning each coefficient update into a well-posed convex problem, attaining computational efficiency and inferential fidelity with theoretical guarantees of mode consistency, exponential-weight concentration, and uniform total-variation accuracy. Our method outperforms competitors in accuracy and speed on synthetic data, and an NBA shot-chart analysis uncovers offensive archetypes.
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BibTeX
@misc{choi2026asymptotically,
title = {{Asymptotically Valid Laplace Variational Inference for Bayesian Nonparametric Clustering of Marked Point Patterns}},
author = {Minsung Choi and Seonghyun Jeong},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2605.09562},
eprint = {2605.09562},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.09562},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Asymptotically Valid Laplace Variational Inference for Bayesian Nonparametric Clustering of Marked Point Patterns
AU - Minsung Choi
AU - Seonghyun Jeong
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/08
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2605.09562
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.09562
AB - We introduce Dirichlet process mixtures of marked Poisson point processes, a Bayesian nonparametric model for clustering replicated marked point patterns. The model jointly infers latent cluster structure, the number of clusters, and continuous mark-specific intensity surfaces with uncertainty quantification, a combination existing methods provide only in part. Using a squared-link intensity whose likelihood is tractable without gridding or thinning, we develop, to our knowledge, the first variational Bayes method for clustering marked Poisson point processes. Its constrained Laplace approximation eliminates sign ambiguity and nodal lines by turning each coefficient update into a well-posed convex problem, attaining computational efficiency and inferential fidelity with theoretical guarantees of mode consistency, exponential-weight concentration, and uniform total-variation accuracy. Our method outperforms competitors in accuracy and speed on synthetic data, and an NBA shot-chart analysis uncovers offensive archetypes.
ER -