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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Nature

Drought and disease trigger novel interactions among top predators

  • Fabrizio Sergio1
  • Haruki Natsukawa1,2
  • Alessandro Tanferna1
  • Javier Chicano1
  • Francisco Carro1
  • Ramón C. Soriguer1
  • Fernando Hiraldo1
  • Julio Blas1
  1. 1Department of Conservation Biology and Global Change, Estación Biológica de Doñana - CSIC, Seville, Spain
  2. 2Faculty of Agriculture, Niigata University, Niigata, Japan
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Abstract

Interactions among species are increasingly recognized as key determinants of climate change impacts on ecosystems1–5. However, we know little about how climatic perturbations affect interactions among top vertebrate predators. Here we show that, when an emergent disease caused the decline of shared prey (rabbits), after decades of neutral co-existence a mammalian carnivore (lynx) started to prey heavily on a top predatory raptor (kites). These predation bouts occurred exclusively under drought conditions and when lynx found rabbit remains under the raptor nests, consistent with the removal of a potential competitor. Drought-induced lynx predation depressed lifetime reproductive success and triggered territory abandonment and dispersal by the raptor, suggestive of a new arms race among predators. A reduction in raptor abundance was associated with an increase in an insectivorous bird (a small owl), showing that the new interaction had the potential to reach lower trophic levels. These results underline the importance of diet flexibility and mobility as important mediators of resilience to stressors. In the future, synergistic effects of multiple anthropogenic stressors may reshape the interactions and ecological roles of many apex predators, with potential cascading consequences for whole ecosystems. A key to forecasting the future impact of global change may reside in understanding how behavioural flexibility and interacting keystone species respond to interacting shocks.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{sergio2026drought,
  title = {{Drought and disease trigger novel interactions among top predators}},
  author = {Fabrizio Sergio and Haruki Natsukawa and Alessandro Tanferna and Javier Chicano and Francisco Carro and Ramón C. Soriguer and Fernando Hiraldo and Julio Blas},
  journal = {Nature},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1038/s41586-026-11194-z},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-11194-z},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Drought and disease trigger novel interactions among top predators
AU  - Fabrizio Sergio
AU  - Haruki Natsukawa
AU  - Alessandro Tanferna
AU  - Javier Chicano
AU  - Francisco Carro
AU  - Ramón C. Soriguer
AU  - Fernando Hiraldo
AU  - Julio Blas
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/21
JO  - Nature
DO  - 10.1038/s41586-026-11194-z
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-11194-z
AB  - Interactions among species are increasingly recognized as key determinants of climate change impacts on ecosystems1–5. However, we know little about how climatic perturbations affect interactions among top vertebrate predators. Here we show that, when an emergent disease caused the decline of shared prey (rabbits), after decades of neutral co-existence a mammalian carnivore (lynx) started to prey heavily on a top predatory raptor (kites). These predation bouts occurred exclusively under drought conditions and when lynx found rabbit remains under the raptor nests, consistent with the removal of a potential competitor. Drought-induced lynx predation depressed lifetime reproductive success and triggered territory abandonment and dispersal by the raptor, suggestive of a new arms race among predators. A reduction in raptor abundance was associated with an increase in an insectivorous bird (a small owl), showing that the new interaction had the potential to reach lower trophic levels. These results underline the importance of diet flexibility and mobility as important mediators of resilience to stressors. In the future, synergistic effects of multiple anthropogenic stressors may reshape the interactions and ecological roles of many apex predators, with potential cascading consequences for whole ecosystems. A key to forecasting the future impact of global change may reside in understanding how behavioural flexibility and interacting keystone species respond to interacting shocks.
SN  - 0028-0836
SN  - 1476-4687
ER  -