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PreprintCC BY 4.0arXiv

The Missing Black Hole in the Large Magellanic Cloud: A Dynamical Prediction for Its Present-Day Location

  • Robin Chisholm
  • Elena D'Onghia
  • Niv Drory
  • Andrew Fox
  • Noam Libeskind
Open at sourcePDFDOICite

Abstract

There are indications that the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) hosts a central supermassive black hole (SMBH), yet no direct detection exists: one reason is that its present-day location need not necessarily coincide with the photometric or kinematic centers. Here we frame a dynamical targeting problem and predict the present-day sky location of the LMC SMBH. We model the recent LMC-Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) interaction, which induces a bar-disk offset, and integrate SMBH orbits within a realistic, time-dependent LMC-SMC-Milky Way (MW) potential. We show that the MW tidal field at present epoch exceeds that of the SMC by at least an order of magnitude, setting a preferred direction for coherent, vertical low-amplitude displacements, while the disk asymmetry drives in-plane offsets. Projecting onto the observed LMC frame, the mean of our predicted SMBH probability distribution is located at (α,δ)=(80.23∘,−69.55∘), with a 1σ confidence ellipse having semi-major and semi-minor axes of (a,b)=(1.34∘,0.56∘), respectively. This mean is ∼6 arcminutes north of the adopted dynamical center, while the mode coincides with the dynamical center and lies well within the 1σ confidence region. Furthermore, all literature estimates of the LMC center considered here fall within the 2σ confidence region. This provides a concrete, testable target for ongoing and upcoming spectroscopic surveys, transforming the search for the LMC SMBH from an unconstrained problem into a focused observational strategy.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@misc{chisholm2026missing,
  title = {{The Missing Black Hole in the Large Magellanic Cloud: A Dynamical Prediction for Its Present-Day Location}},
  author = {Robin Chisholm and Elena D'Onghia and Niv Drory and Andrew Fox and Noam Libeskind},
  howpublished = {arXiv},
  year = {2026},
  month = sep,
  doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.16177},
  eprint = {2609.16177},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.16177},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - UNPB
TI  - The Missing Black Hole in the Large Magellanic Cloud: A Dynamical Prediction for Its Present-Day Location
AU  - Robin Chisholm
AU  - Elena D'Onghia
AU  - Niv Drory
AU  - Andrew Fox
AU  - Noam Libeskind
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/14
PB  - arXiv
DO  - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.16177
UR  - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.16177
AB  - There are indications that the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) hosts a central supermassive black hole (SMBH), yet no direct detection exists: one reason is that its present-day location need not necessarily coincide with the photometric or kinematic centers. Here we frame a dynamical targeting problem and predict the present-day sky location of the LMC SMBH. We model the recent LMC-Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) interaction, which induces a bar-disk offset, and integrate SMBH orbits within a realistic, time-dependent LMC-SMC-Milky Way (MW) potential. We show that the MW tidal field at present epoch exceeds that of the SMC by at least an order of magnitude, setting a preferred direction for coherent, vertical low-amplitude displacements, while the disk asymmetry drives in-plane offsets. Projecting onto the observed LMC frame, the mean of our predicted SMBH probability distribution is located at (α,δ)=(80.23^∘,−69.55^∘), with a 1σ confidence ellipse having semi-major and semi-minor axes of (a,b)=(1.34^∘,0.56^∘), respectively. This mean is ∼6 arcminutes north of the adopted dynamical center, while the mode coincides with the dynamical center and lies well within the 1σ confidence region. Furthermore, all literature estimates of the LMC center considered here fall within the 2σ confidence region. This provides a concrete, testable target for ongoing and upcoming spectroscopic surveys, transforming the search for the LMC SMBH from an unconstrained problem into a focused observational strategy.
ER  -