Three-dimensional assessment of watershed health resilience and low-resilience risk analysis under the coupling of water resources, ecological, and socioeconomic subsystems
- 1State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
- 2State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China; Corresponding author at: State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, No. 1, Yuyuantan South Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100038, China.
- 3The Department of Policy Research, Water Conservation Promotion Center of the Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100038, China
Abstract
Watershed resilience under compounded climate variability and intensifying human disturbances has become a critical prerequisite for sustainable development in semi-arid inland basins. This study developed a spatially explicit watershed health resilience (WHR) framework in which indicators were classified by both functional subsystem and resilience dimension, while quantitative aggregation was performed for the three functional subsystems and overall WHR. Using the upper Xilin River Basin (XRB) as a case study, we implemented the framework on a common spatial grid to assess WHR dynamics during 2010–2023, identify major constraints, and examine spatial associations. Copula models were used to explore pairwise dependence, while empirical proportions described joint and conditional low-resilience occurrence. WHR exhibited persistent spatial heterogeneity, with stable low-resilience clusters along the main river course, tributary confluences, and the reach immediately upstream of the Xilin River Reservoir, whereas WHR remained consistently higher in upstream areas of the XRB. Obstacle analysis revealed that the water resources subsystem constituted the primary bottleneck, mainly constrained by the seasonal rebound amplitude of surface runoff and the seasonal rebound amplitude of groundwater level. GeoDetector demonstrated that vegetation-water coupling factors had the greatest explanatory power for WHR spatial heterogeneity, led by the seasonal rebound amplitude of NDVI and water use efficiency. Exploratory copula analysis suggested a possible tendency for low water resources and ecological subsystem scores to co-occur, although the short annual record limits inference about tail dependence. This framework supports resilience-oriented hotspot identification and watershed management informed by statistical dependence among subsystems.
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BibTeX
@article{chen2026threedimensional,
title = {{Three-dimensional assessment of watershed health resilience and low-resilience risk analysis under the coupling of water resources, ecological, and socioeconomic subsystems}},
author = {Weifan Chen and Jia Liu and Denghua Yan and Pengfei Cao and Cheng Zhao and Ge Gao and Chuanzhe Li},
journal = {Ecological Indicators},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115745},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115745},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Three-dimensional assessment of watershed health resilience and low-resilience risk analysis under the coupling of water resources, ecological, and socioeconomic subsystems
AU - Weifan Chen
AU - Jia Liu
AU - Denghua Yan
AU - Pengfei Cao
AU - Cheng Zhao
AU - Ge Gao
AU - Chuanzhe Li
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
JO - Ecological Indicators
DO - 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115745
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115745
AB - Watershed resilience under compounded climate variability and intensifying human disturbances has become a critical prerequisite for sustainable development in semi-arid inland basins. This study developed a spatially explicit watershed health resilience (WHR) framework in which indicators were classified by both functional subsystem and resilience dimension, while quantitative aggregation was performed for the three functional subsystems and overall WHR. Using the upper Xilin River Basin (XRB) as a case study, we implemented the framework on a common spatial grid to assess WHR dynamics during 2010–2023, identify major constraints, and examine spatial associations. Copula models were used to explore pairwise dependence, while empirical proportions described joint and conditional low-resilience occurrence. WHR exhibited persistent spatial heterogeneity, with stable low-resilience clusters along the main river course, tributary confluences, and the reach immediately upstream of the Xilin River Reservoir, whereas WHR remained consistently higher in upstream areas of the XRB. Obstacle analysis revealed that the water resources subsystem constituted the primary bottleneck, mainly constrained by the seasonal rebound amplitude of surface runoff and the seasonal rebound amplitude of groundwater level. GeoDetector demonstrated that vegetation-water coupling factors had the greatest explanatory power for WHR spatial heterogeneity, led by the seasonal rebound amplitude of NDVI and water use efficiency. Exploratory copula analysis suggested a possible tendency for low water resources and ecological subsystem scores to co-occur, although the short annual record limits inference about tail dependence. This framework supports resilience-oriented hotspot identification and watershed management informed by statistical dependence among subsystems.
SN - 1470-160X
SN - 1872-7034
ER -