Heat-driven declines in Scots pine cone and seed quality contrast with long-term climate adjustment
Abstract
Climate change can alter forest regeneration through effects on seed production, seed quality, and the structures that protect seeds, yet most evidence focuses on seed output alone. We used 15 years of cone and seed-quality data from 184 Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) populations to test whether climate effects extend beyond fecundity to reproductive traits that determine viable propagule supply. We separated among-population differences along long-term climate gradients (spatial effects) from within-population responses to seasonal weather anomalies (temporal effects). Across space, warmer climates were associated with heavier seeds (by ~8%) but lighter cones (by ~15%), whereas wetter climates were associated with heavier seeds (by ~10%) and cones (by ~20%). Temporal analyses revealed additional constraints: at warmer sites, hotter-than-average years reduced seed mass (by ~8%), cone mass (by ~14%), and the number of seeds per cone (by ~23%). Thus, heat can constrain Scots pine regeneration before germination by reducing the number of filled seeds, their provisioning, and investment in surrounding cone tissue. Spatial gradients are consistent with long-term adjustment of Scots pine reproductive traits to local climate, potentially through acclimation, genetic adaptation, or both, whereas temporal anomalies reveal near-term constraints that may intensify under rapid warming. Because Scots pine is one of Europe’s most important forest-forming species, these results point to near-term reproductive bottlenecks caused by heat and call for studies testing whether reduced seed number, seed size, and cone protection translate into lower regeneration under climate change.
Related
- Vertebrates do not display consistent declines in abundance or stability with contemporary range or realized climate niche centrality
- Meta-analysis with batch-effect adjustment reveals breed-specific ruminal microbiome variation of beef cattle and its implications for meat quality and productivity.
- Climate-driven fitness decline in Japanese Chum Salmon reshapes North Pacific salmon biogeography, with reproductive consequences: A Bayesian network analysis
- Climate-driven rodent demography provides a general, transferable basis for predicting arenavirus spillover
- Seaweed carbon removal cannot keep up with climate-driven loss
BibTeX
@misc{bury2026heatdriven,
title = {{Heat-driven declines in Scots pine cone and seed quality contrast with long-term climate adjustment}},
author = {Sebastian Bury and Marcin K. Dyderski and Jessie Foest and Maciej Barczyk and Witold Wachowiak and Szymon Jastrzębowski and Adam Guziejko and Andrew Hacket-Pain and Michał Bogdziewicz},
howpublished = {EcoEvoRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.32942/x28m3f},
url = {https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/14778/},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Heat-driven declines in Scots pine cone and seed quality contrast with long-term climate adjustment
AU - Sebastian Bury
AU - Marcin K. Dyderski
AU - Jessie Foest
AU - Maciej Barczyk
AU - Witold Wachowiak
AU - Szymon Jastrzębowski
AU - Adam Guziejko
AU - Andrew Hacket-Pain
AU - Michał Bogdziewicz
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/05
PB - EcoEvoRxiv
DO - 10.32942/x28m3f
UR - https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/14778/
AB - Climate change can alter forest regeneration through effects on seed production, seed quality, and the structures that protect seeds, yet most evidence focuses on seed output alone. We used 15 years of cone and seed-quality data from 184 Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) populations to test whether climate effects extend beyond fecundity to reproductive traits that determine viable propagule supply. We separated among-population differences along long-term climate gradients (spatial effects) from within-population responses to seasonal weather anomalies (temporal effects). Across space, warmer climates were associated with heavier seeds (by ~8%) but lighter cones (by ~15%), whereas wetter climates were associated with heavier seeds (by ~10%) and cones (by ~20%). Temporal analyses revealed additional constraints: at warmer sites, hotter-than-average years reduced seed mass (by ~8%), cone mass (by ~14%), and the number of seeds per cone (by ~23%). Thus, heat can constrain Scots pine regeneration before germination by reducing the number of filled seeds, their provisioning, and investment in surrounding cone tissue. Spatial gradients are consistent with long-term adjustment of Scots pine reproductive traits to local climate, potentially through acclimation, genetic adaptation, or both, whereas temporal anomalies reveal near-term constraints that may intensify under rapid warming. Because Scots pine is one of Europe’s most important forest-forming species, these results point to near-term reproductive bottlenecks caused by heat and call for studies testing whether reduced seed number, seed size, and cone protection translate into lower regeneration under climate change.
ER -