Agricultural Intensity, Soil Trace Elements, and Inflammatory Bowel Disease Incidence in Northern France: An 18-Year Ecological Study
Abstract
Background: The incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) shows marked and persistent spatial variation, suggesting a role for environmental determinants. Agricultural environments have been proposed as potential contributors, but their role in shaping IBD spatial patterns remains poorly quantified. We investigated whether municipal-level indicators of agricultural land use, pesticide purchases, and soil trace element enrichment were associated with Crohn’s disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) incidence in northern France. Methods: We conducted a population-based ecological study in the EPIMAD registry area, covering about 6 million inhabitants in northern France. Incident CD and UC cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2017 were aggregated at the municipality level and analysed using hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal Poisson models. Environmental indicators were derived from national databases, aggregated at municipal level, and summarised into composite scores. Associations are reported as relative risks (RRs) per 1-SD increase with 95% credible intervals (CrIs). Findings: 9 019 CD and 5 789 UC cases were included. Spatial heterogeneity was substantial and stable over time for both diseases. For CD, a higher Crops Score, reflecting a greater municipal share of input-intensive crops, was associated with higher incidence (RR 1·08, 95% CrI 1·05–1·11) and explained 16·5% of spatial variance. A higher soil Trace Elements Score was also associated with CD incidence (RR 1·13, 95% CrI 1·05–1·22), explaining 11·8% of spatial variance. Municipal purchases of growth regulators (RR 1·05, 95% CrI 1·02–1·09) and herbicides (RR 1·04, 95% CrI 1·01–1·08) were positively associated with CD incidence. Associations with UC were weaker and accounted for little spatial heterogeneity. Interpretation: Long-term environmental pressures related to intensive agricultural systems may contribute to CD geography. However, the ecological design limits individual-level causal inference, underscoring the need for studies integrating individual exposure assessment, biomonitoring, and mechanistic approaches.
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BibTeX
@misc{paumelle2026agricultural,
title = {{Agricultural Intensity, Soil Trace Elements, and Inflammatory Bowel Disease Incidence in Northern France: An 18-Year Ecological Study}},
author = {Martin Paumelle and Florent Occelli and Annabelle Deram and Caroline Lanier and Lara Maria Wakim and Cécile Vignal and Béatrice Touchelay and Léo Heuguebart and Mohamed-Salem Ahmed and Camille Ternynck and Corinne Gower-Rousseau and Delphine Ley and Guillaume Savoye and Mathurin Fumery and Hélène Sarter and Michaël Genin},
howpublished = {HAL},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.2139/ssrn.6769457},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05775723v1},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Agricultural Intensity, Soil Trace Elements, and Inflammatory Bowel Disease Incidence in Northern France: An 18-Year Ecological Study
AU - Martin Paumelle
AU - Florent Occelli
AU - Annabelle Deram
AU - Caroline Lanier
AU - Lara Maria Wakim
AU - Cécile Vignal
AU - Béatrice Touchelay
AU - Léo Heuguebart
AU - Mohamed-Salem Ahmed
AU - Camille Ternynck
AU - Corinne Gower-Rousseau
AU - Delphine Ley
AU - Guillaume Savoye
AU - Mathurin Fumery
AU - Hélène Sarter
AU - Michaël Genin
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/02
PB - HAL
DO - 10.2139/ssrn.6769457
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05775723v1
AB - Background: The incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) shows marked and persistent spatial variation, suggesting a role for environmental determinants. Agricultural environments have been proposed as potential contributors, but their role in shaping IBD spatial patterns remains poorly quantified. We investigated whether municipal-level indicators of agricultural land use, pesticide purchases, and soil trace element enrichment were associated with Crohn’s disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) incidence in northern France. Methods: We conducted a population-based ecological study in the EPIMAD registry area, covering about 6 million inhabitants in northern France. Incident CD and UC cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2017 were aggregated at the municipality level and analysed using hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal Poisson models. Environmental indicators were derived from national databases, aggregated at municipal level, and summarised into composite scores. Associations are reported as relative risks (RRs) per 1-SD increase with 95% credible intervals (CrIs). Findings: 9 019 CD and 5 789 UC cases were included. Spatial heterogeneity was substantial and stable over time for both diseases. For CD, a higher Crops Score, reflecting a greater municipal share of input-intensive crops, was associated with higher incidence (RR 1·08, 95% CrI 1·05–1·11) and explained 16·5% of spatial variance. A higher soil Trace Elements Score was also associated with CD incidence (RR 1·13, 95% CrI 1·05–1·22), explaining 11·8% of spatial variance. Municipal purchases of growth regulators (RR 1·05, 95% CrI 1·02–1·09) and herbicides (RR 1·04, 95% CrI 1·01–1·08) were positively associated with CD incidence. Associations with UC were weaker and accounted for little spatial heterogeneity. Interpretation: Long-term environmental pressures related to intensive agricultural systems may contribute to CD geography. However, the ecological design limits individual-level causal inference, underscoring the need for studies integrating individual exposure assessment, biomonitoring, and mechanistic approaches.
ER -