The Goldilocks Prior: Physically Consistent Inference of Neutron Star Properties from Gravitational Wave Observations
Abstract
Gravitational wave observations of neutron star mergers provide a unique window into the interiors of neutron stars, probing dense matter from microscopic nuclear interactions to the macroscopic structure, including their maximum mass, beyond which the remnant collapses to a black hole. Accurate inference of these properties is crucial, as many astrophysical, nuclear, and multimessenger studies rely on gravitational wave constraints. Studies on estimating neutron-star properties from gravitational waves often employ priors that neglect correlations between parameters, or treat tidal degrees of freedom inconsistently, leading to biases in inferred neutron-star properties. We introduce a novel physically informed prior, Goldilocks Prior, that is informed by a broad, semi-parametric ensemble of equations of state, accounts for the joint correlations among the chirp mass, mass ratio, and both tidal deformability parameters, and is tailored to detector sensitivity. Using several mock binary neutron star merger simulations spanning symmetric and asymmetric masses, spinning and non-spinning systems, and a range of signal-to-noise ratios, we show that Goldilocks Prior consistently reduces biases in the inferred tidal posteriors relative to uniform and previously proposed EoS-informed priors. This framework provides a robust, systematic approach for neutron star parameter estimation, enabling more reliable inference for both current and future gravitational wave observations.
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BibTeX
@misc{khadkikar2026goldilocks,
title = {{The Goldilocks Prior: Physically Consistent Inference of Neutron Star Properties from Gravitational Wave Observations}},
author = {Sanika Khadkikar and B. S. Sathyaprakash},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2611.07146},
eprint = {2611.07146},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.07146},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - The Goldilocks Prior: Physically Consistent Inference of Neutron Star Properties from Gravitational Wave Observations
AU - Sanika Khadkikar
AU - B. S. Sathyaprakash
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/04
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2611.07146
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.07146
AB - Gravitational wave observations of neutron star mergers provide a unique window into the interiors of neutron stars, probing dense matter from microscopic nuclear interactions to the macroscopic structure, including their maximum mass, beyond which the remnant collapses to a black hole. Accurate inference of these properties is crucial, as many astrophysical, nuclear, and multimessenger studies rely on gravitational wave constraints. Studies on estimating neutron-star properties from gravitational waves often employ priors that neglect correlations between parameters, or treat tidal degrees of freedom inconsistently, leading to biases in inferred neutron-star properties. We introduce a novel physically informed prior, Goldilocks Prior, that is informed by a broad, semi-parametric ensemble of equations of state, accounts for the joint correlations among the chirp mass, mass ratio, and both tidal deformability parameters, and is tailored to detector sensitivity. Using several mock binary neutron star merger simulations spanning symmetric and asymmetric masses, spinning and non-spinning systems, and a range of signal-to-noise ratios, we show that Goldilocks Prior consistently reduces biases in the inferred tidal posteriors relative to uniform and previously proposed EoS-informed priors. This framework provides a robust, systematic approach for neutron star parameter estimation, enabling more reliable inference for both current and future gravitational wave observations.
ER -