Multilevel network meta-regression for multistate models: Population-adjusted joint synthesis of progression and survival from individual and aggregate data
Abstract
In network meta-analysis (NMA) of oncology time-to-event outcomes, there is growing recognition that progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) are better synthesized jointly than in separate analyses. The multistate NMA of Jansen et al. addresses this with a tri-state (stable, progressed, dead) Markov model fitted to aggregate survival curves. It cannot, however, adjust for imbalance in effect modifiers across trials, so its relative effects may be biased or not apply to the target population. Multilevel network meta-regression (ML-NMR) resolves covariate imbalance by integrating an individual-level model over each aggregate study's covariate distribution, coherently combining individual participant data (IPD) and aggregate data (AgD); however, for time-to-event outcomes it has been developed only for a single endpoint. This paper introduces multilevel network meta-regression for multistate models (ML-NMR-MS), which embeds the ML-NMR integrated IPD-plus-AgD likelihood inside an illness-death multistate model. For IPD studies the full multistate likelihood over linked transitions is used; for AgD studies covariate-marginal state-occupancy probabilities are computed by quasi-Monte Carlo integration of the occupancies implied by the transition intensities over the reconstructed covariate distribution, and entered through a conditional-survival likelihood. The resulting population-adjusted joint PFS/OS treatment effects can directly parameterize a state-transition economic model. On an illustrative network, ML-NMR-MS resolves a treatment's joint effect into its component transitions, separating an effect on progression from an effect on post-progression survival, and produces conditional and marginal effects. Under correct specification, a simulation study with known truth shows negligible bias and near-nominal coverage for the population-adjusted treatment effects.
Related
- Multilevel regression trees with application to wildfires in the American west
- Measuring a dreaming population: multilevel temporal organization in 75,000 dream reports
- Model-assisted estimation of the finite population mean via local linear regression with associated kernels
- Quantifying and adjusting for selection biases in the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study using population-wide individual-level registry information
- TwinPoSI: Statistical Twins for Powerful Post-Selection Inference on Population-Based Regression Coefficients
BibTeX
@misc{jansen2026multilevel,
title = {{Multilevel network meta-regression for multistate models: Population-adjusted joint synthesis of progression and survival from individual and aggregate data}},
author = {Jeroen P Jansen},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2607.25120},
eprint = {2607.25120},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.25120},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Multilevel network meta-regression for multistate models: Population-adjusted joint synthesis of progression and survival from individual and aggregate data
AU - Jeroen P Jansen
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2607.25120
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.25120
AB - In network meta-analysis (NMA) of oncology time-to-event outcomes, there is growing recognition that progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) are better synthesized jointly than in separate analyses. The multistate NMA of Jansen et al. addresses this with a tri-state (stable, progressed, dead) Markov model fitted to aggregate survival curves. It cannot, however, adjust for imbalance in effect modifiers across trials, so its relative effects may be biased or not apply to the target population. Multilevel network meta-regression (ML-NMR) resolves covariate imbalance by integrating an individual-level model over each aggregate study's covariate distribution, coherently combining individual participant data (IPD) and aggregate data (AgD); however, for time-to-event outcomes it has been developed only for a single endpoint. This paper introduces multilevel network meta-regression for multistate models (ML-NMR-MS), which embeds the ML-NMR integrated IPD-plus-AgD likelihood inside an illness-death multistate model. For IPD studies the full multistate likelihood over linked transitions is used; for AgD studies covariate-marginal state-occupancy probabilities are computed by quasi-Monte Carlo integration of the occupancies implied by the transition intensities over the reconstructed covariate distribution, and entered through a conditional-survival likelihood. The resulting population-adjusted joint PFS/OS treatment effects can directly parameterize a state-transition economic model. On an illustrative network, ML-NMR-MS resolves a treatment's joint effect into its component transitions, separating an effect on progression from an effect on post-progression survival, and produces conditional and marginal effects. Under correct specification, a simulation study with known truth shows negligible bias and near-nominal coverage for the population-adjusted treatment effects.
ER -