Manage derailment risks to avoid Hothouse Earth
- 1Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter
- 2Strategic Climate Risk Initiative
Abstract
The risk of a ‘Hothouse Earth’ trajectory has become increasingly prominent in debates about Earth system stability and climate overshoot. Existing analyses primarily focus on biophysical feedbacks that may amplify warming beyond direct anthropogenic forcing. We argue the concept has not previously incorporated how social destabilisation lowers the effective threshold at which biophysical tipping dynamics become self-sustaining, independently of further anthropogenic forcing and so undermines the capacity for planetary stewardship. We define ‘derailment risk’ as the possibility that escalating Earth system disruption weakens the social, political, and economic conditions required to sustain mitigation, adaptation, and ecological restoration. Such risks emerge when climate impacts contribute to a wide range of challenges, including debt crises, institutional erosion, political fragmentation, supply-chain instability, and declining public support for environmental action. These reinforcing feedbacks may reduce humanity’s capacity to respond even before biophysical tipping thresholds are crossed. We therefore extend the Hothouse Earth framework by incorporating social dynamics into the Earth system stability landscape. We propose a three-stage framework for assessing and managing derailment risks: conceptual mapping of socio-biophysical feedbacks; anticipatory resilience-building interventions; responsive governance strategies for periods of escalating instability. We conclude that planetary stewardship should prioritise maintaining and expanding collective agency under worsening Earth system stress.
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BibTeX
@article{dyke2026manage,
title = {{Manage derailment risks to avoid Hothouse Earth}},
author = {James G Dyke and Laurie Laybourn and Jesse F Abrams},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aeb1de},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeb1de},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Manage derailment risks to avoid Hothouse Earth
AU - James G Dyke
AU - Laurie Laybourn
AU - Jesse F Abrams
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/06
JO - Environmental Research Letters
DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb1de
UR - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeb1de
AB - The risk of a ‘Hothouse Earth’ trajectory has become increasingly prominent in debates about Earth system stability and climate overshoot. Existing analyses primarily focus on biophysical feedbacks that may amplify warming beyond direct anthropogenic forcing. We argue the concept has not previously incorporated how social destabilisation lowers the effective threshold at which biophysical tipping dynamics become self-sustaining, independently of further anthropogenic forcing and so undermines the capacity for planetary stewardship. We define ‘derailment risk’ as the possibility that escalating Earth system disruption weakens the social, political, and economic conditions required to sustain mitigation, adaptation, and ecological restoration. Such risks emerge when climate impacts contribute to a wide range of challenges, including debt crises, institutional erosion, political fragmentation, supply-chain instability, and declining public support for environmental action. These reinforcing feedbacks may reduce humanity’s capacity to respond even before biophysical tipping thresholds are crossed. We therefore extend the Hothouse Earth framework by incorporating social dynamics into the Earth system stability landscape. We propose a three-stage framework for assessing and managing derailment risks: conceptual mapping of socio-biophysical feedbacks; anticipatory resilience-building interventions; responsive governance strategies for periods of escalating instability. We conclude that planetary stewardship should prioritise maintaining and expanding collective agency under worsening Earth system stress.
SN - 1748-9326
ER -