Skip to content
DraconiticResearch
Search Sources API
203,234 studies31 sourcesUpdated 21 min ago
Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0PLOS One

Cardiovascular disease mortality in a Central-West Brazilian capital: A spatial, temporal, and ecological analysis

  • João Vitor Barrio1
  • Rafael Santana Batista Cabral2
  • Sonia Regina Maciel Rodrigues da Silva3
  • Audêncio Victor
  • Maria Elizabeth Araújo Ajalla
  • Cláudia Du Bocage Santos-Pinto
  • Everton Falcão de Oliveira
  1. 1Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil
  2. 2Programa de Pós-Graduação em Doenças Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil
  3. 3Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
Open at sourcePDFDOICite

Abstract

In Brazil, regional disparities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality persist, with no population-based study having examined CVD mortality at the municipal level in the Central-West region. This study analysed the epidemiological profile, temporal trends, spatial distribution, and socioeconomic correlates of CVD mortality in Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil (2013–2022). A population-based ecological study used data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System. Five CVD groups were analysed: ischaemic heart disease (IHD), heart failure (HF), arrhythmias (ARR), cardiomyopathies (CMP), and inflammatory heart diseases (INF). Temporal trends were assessed using Poisson, Prais-Winsten, and Joinpoint regression. Spatial distribution was examined through Kernel Density Estimation and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA). Socioeconomic correlates were assessed using Spearman’s correlation with neighbourhood-level indicators. Of 59,392 registered deaths, 8,148 (13.7%) were CVD-related. IHD was the dominant cause (79.5%), with males accounting for 59.3% of deaths (IRR 1.59; 95% CI 1.46–1.74) and individuals aged ≥60 years representing 75.2%. Overall crude CVD mortality increased by 26.1% over the study period, with an estimated mean annual increase of 2.5% (APC + 2.5%/year; 95% CI 1.7–3.3; p < 0.001) and significant acceleration after 2019. A striking proportion of IHD deaths occurred outside hospital settings (67.3%), with home deaths alone surpassing hospital deaths (43.9% vs. 32.7%). Spatial analysis identified significant high-high mortality clusters in central-western neighbourhoods and low-low clusters in eastern neighbourhoods (13 and 5 neighbourhoods, respectively; Global Moran’s I = 0.555, p < 0.001), with cluster patterns varying by disease group. Socioeconomic correlates showed a consistent pattern across most CVD groups, with higher mortality in more socioeconomically advantaged neighbourhoods, except for inflammatory heart disease, which showed the opposite pattern. This first municipal-level CVD mortality analysis in Central-West Brazil identified significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity and a high burden of out-of-hospital IHD deaths, providing actionable evidence for geographically targeted cardiovascular prevention strategies.

Related

  1. Trends and differences in breast cancer mortality by race, region and age among Brazilian women, 1996-2024: a nationwide ecological study
    A. T. Zuffo Yabrude, L. C. Souza Reis, A. E. Saragossa Zafalon +2
    medRxivPreprintCC BYFull textEpidemiology & public healthmedRxiv
  2. Global Trends in Cardiovascular Mortality and Major Cardiometabolic Risk Factors, 2000 to 2023: A Longitudinal Ecological Analysis of 204 Countries and Territories
    K. M. Al-Dhayani
    medRxivPreprintCC BYFull textCardiovascular medicinemedRxiv
  3. Associations of access to exercise opportunities and physical inactivity with cardiovascular–kidney–metabolic mortality: a nationwide ecological study
    Chen Zhao, Zhisheng Zhu, Jiaxian Zhang +2
    Frontiers in public healthPeer-reviewedCC BYFull textPhysiologyEurope PMCCrossref
  4. Machine learning based predictive model for cardiovascular disease mortality risk in patients with stage 4 cardiovascular–kidney–metabolic syndrome
    Pengyu Zhang, Sining Wang, He Yang +6
    MedicinePeer-reviewedCC BYFull textGeneral medicineEurope PMC
  5. Development and validation of a novel metabolic-inflammatory health-related nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in older patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus combined with cardiovascular disease
    Juntao Tan, Tailin Dong, Yuxin He +1
    Frontiers in medicinePeer-reviewedCC BYFull textGeneral medicineEurope PMC

Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{barrio2026cardiovascular,
  title = {{Cardiovascular disease mortality in a Central-West Brazilian capital: A spatial, temporal, and ecological analysis}},
  author = {João Vitor Barrio and Rafael Santana Batista Cabral and Sonia Regina Maciel Rodrigues da Silva and Audêncio Victor and Maria Elizabeth Araújo Ajalla and Cláudia Du Bocage Santos-Pinto and Everton Falcão de Oliveira},
  journal = {PLOS One},
  year = {2026},
  month = sep,
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0359337},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0359337},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Cardiovascular disease mortality in a Central-West Brazilian capital: A spatial, temporal, and ecological analysis
AU  - João Vitor Barrio
AU  - Rafael Santana Batista Cabral
AU  - Sonia Regina Maciel Rodrigues da Silva
AU  - Audêncio Victor
AU  - Maria Elizabeth Araújo Ajalla
AU  - Cláudia Du Bocage Santos-Pinto
AU  - Everton Falcão de Oliveira
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/29
JO  - PLOS One
DO  - 10.1371/journal.pone.0359337
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0359337
AB  - In Brazil, regional disparities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality persist, with no population-based study having examined CVD mortality at the municipal level in the Central-West region. This study analysed the epidemiological profile, temporal trends, spatial distribution, and socioeconomic correlates of CVD mortality in Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil (2013–2022). A population-based ecological study used data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System. Five CVD groups were analysed: ischaemic heart disease (IHD), heart failure (HF), arrhythmias (ARR), cardiomyopathies (CMP), and inflammatory heart diseases (INF). Temporal trends were assessed using Poisson, Prais-Winsten, and Joinpoint regression. Spatial distribution was examined through Kernel Density Estimation and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA). Socioeconomic correlates were assessed using Spearman’s correlation with neighbourhood-level indicators. Of 59,392 registered deaths, 8,148 (13.7%) were CVD-related. IHD was the dominant cause (79.5%), with males accounting for 59.3% of deaths (IRR 1.59; 95% CI 1.46–1.74) and individuals aged ≥60 years representing 75.2%. Overall crude CVD mortality increased by 26.1% over the study period, with an estimated mean annual increase of 2.5% (APC + 2.5%/year; 95% CI 1.7–3.3; p < 0.001) and significant acceleration after 2019. A striking proportion of IHD deaths occurred outside hospital settings (67.3%), with home deaths alone surpassing hospital deaths (43.9% vs. 32.7%). Spatial analysis identified significant high-high mortality clusters in central-western neighbourhoods and low-low clusters in eastern neighbourhoods (13 and 5 neighbourhoods, respectively; Global Moran’s I = 0.555, p < 0.001), with cluster patterns varying by disease group. Socioeconomic correlates showed a consistent pattern across most CVD groups, with higher mortality in more socioeconomically advantaged neighbourhoods, except for inflammatory heart disease, which showed the opposite pattern. This first municipal-level CVD mortality analysis in Central-West Brazil identified significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity and a high burden of out-of-hospital IHD deaths, providing actionable evidence for geographically targeted cardiovascular prevention strategies.
SN  - 1932-6203
ER  -