The changing returns to physical exercise in China (2010-2023): a nine-wave repeated cross-sectional study.
- 1School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China.
- 2Hangzhou Medical College, Hangzhou, China.
- 3Anhui Professional & Technical Institute of Athletics, Hefei, China.
Abstract
Background
Since 2008, when China began to implement its strategy of building a sports power, the institutional context of physical exercise has changed substantially. Yet the temporal dynamics of the socioeconomic correlates of exercise remain underexplored.Objectives
To examine whether and how physical exercise participation and its associations with income, self-rated health, and social trust changed over the 2010-2023 study period.Methods
Using nine waves of the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS 2010-2023, N = 78,467), we estimate annual marginal effects of exercise through ordinary least squares regression with exercise-by-year interactions. Three policy periods corresponding to phases of the Sports Power strategy are compared.Results
Exercise participation rose from 31.68% in 2010 to 51.26% in 2023. The exercise-income association increased from 0.301 (Period 1, 2010-2012) to 0.367 (Period 3, 2018-2023, +21.9%), although formal cross-period tests did not reach statistical significance; the upward trend is therefore only weakly consistent with Hypothesis 1. The exercise-health association was negative and appeared to deepen across periods, but the cross-period differences lost statistical significance once the non-comparable 2011 wave was excluded, so this apparent change is interpreted cautiously. The exercise-trust association moved from a non-significant -0.013 to -0.101 (SE = 0.014). Subgroup analyses showed larger income associations for men than women (0.420 versus 0.279) and for rural than urban residents (0.449 versus 0.180).Conclusion
Exercise participation rose markedly over the study period, and the exercise-trust association turned increasingly negative, but the exercise-income association did not strengthen to a statistically significant degree, and the health-selection pattern was sensitive to the exclusion of the 2011 wave. The observed changes are read as population-level associations rather than causal effects of the Sports Power strategy.
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BibTeX
@article{deng2026changing,
title = {{The changing returns to physical exercise in China (2010-2023): a nine-wave repeated cross-sectional study.}},
author = {Lamei Deng and Zhicheng Wang and Wei Liu and Chenyong Wei},
journal = {Frontiers in psychology},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2026.1912354},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42898450},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - The changing returns to physical exercise in China (2010-2023): a nine-wave repeated cross-sectional study.
AU - Lamei Deng
AU - Zhicheng Wang
AU - Wei Liu
AU - Chenyong Wei
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/05
JO - Frontiers in psychology
DO - 10.3389/fpsyg.2026.1912354
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42898450
AB - Background Since 2008, when China began to implement its strategy of building a sports power, the institutional context of physical exercise has changed substantially. Yet the temporal dynamics of the socioeconomic correlates of exercise remain underexplored.Objectives To examine whether and how physical exercise participation and its associations with income, self-rated health, and social trust changed over the 2010-2023 study period.Methods Using nine waves of the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS 2010-2023, N = 78,467), we estimate annual marginal effects of exercise through ordinary least squares regression with exercise-by-year interactions. Three policy periods corresponding to phases of the Sports Power strategy are compared.Results Exercise participation rose from 31.68% in 2010 to 51.26% in 2023. The exercise-income association increased from 0.301 (Period 1, 2010-2012) to 0.367 (Period 3, 2018-2023, +21.9%), although formal cross-period tests did not reach statistical significance; the upward trend is therefore only weakly consistent with Hypothesis 1. The exercise-health association was negative and appeared to deepen across periods, but the cross-period differences lost statistical significance once the non-comparable 2011 wave was excluded, so this apparent change is interpreted cautiously. The exercise-trust association moved from a non-significant -0.013 to -0.101 (SE = 0.014). Subgroup analyses showed larger income associations for men than women (0.420 versus 0.279) and for rural than urban residents (0.449 versus 0.180).Conclusion Exercise participation rose markedly over the study period, and the exercise-trust association turned increasingly negative, but the exercise-income association did not strengthen to a statistically significant degree, and the health-selection pattern was sensitive to the exclusion of the 2011 wave. The observed changes are read as population-level associations rather than causal effects of the Sports Power strategy.
SN - 1664-1078
ER -