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PreprintCC BY 4.0arXiv

Rescheduled, not redefined: The moving plateau of old-age mortality

  • Silvio C. Patricio
  • Trifon I. Missov
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Abstract

Whether the risk of death keeps climbing at extreme ages or levels off has divided researchers for a century. We show this conflict reflects a moving target. Using cohort data from twelve low-mortality populations, we find that mortality deceleration and plateau onset shift steadily later across cohorts born from the mid-19th to the early-20th century. The data support a plateau across the full cohort range, though evidence weakens for the youngest, incompletely observed cohorts. In these younger cohorts, deceleration begins near age 100, and the fitted plateau begins beyond age 108. Because past studies focused on different cohorts and fixed age ranges, they sampled different phases of the exact same shift. The mortality plateau has no fixed age: it has been rescheduled.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@misc{patricio2026rescheduled,
  title = {{Rescheduled, not redefined: The moving plateau of old-age mortality}},
  author = {Silvio C. Patricio and Trifon I. Missov},
  howpublished = {arXiv},
  year = {2026},
  month = aug,
  doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2608.29452},
  eprint = {2608.29452},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.29452},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - UNPB
TI  - Rescheduled, not redefined: The moving plateau of old-age mortality
AU  - Silvio C. Patricio
AU  - Trifon I. Missov
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/08/29
PB  - arXiv
DO  - 10.48550/arxiv.2608.29452
UR  - https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.29452
AB  - Whether the risk of death keeps climbing at extreme ages or levels off has divided researchers for a century. We show this conflict reflects a moving target. Using cohort data from twelve low-mortality populations, we find that mortality deceleration and plateau onset shift steadily later across cohorts born from the mid-19th to the early-20th century. The data support a plateau across the full cohort range, though evidence weakens for the youngest, incompletely observed cohorts. In these younger cohorts, deceleration begins near age 100, and the fitted plateau begins beyond age 108. Because past studies focused on different cohorts and fixed age ranges, they sampled different phases of the exact same shift. The mortality plateau has no fixed age: it has been rescheduled.
ER  -