Mortality-to-Incidence Ratio of Diabetes Mellitus: 2018 – 2024 Progress Radar in Belgrade (Serbia)
Abstract
Background: The mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) can be used to monitor the progress of diabetes mellitus (DM) management. This study assesses changes in the MIR for DM in the Belgrade population (≈1.7 million) from 2018 to 2024.
Methods: Population size, life expectancy (LE), registered DM deaths and incidence (International Classification of Diseases, ICD-X: E10-11) from anonymized population registries of the Belgrade City Institute of Public Health (2018-2024), were analyzed to assess MIR, age-standardized incidence, mortality and YLL rates per 100,000 (ASIR, ASMR and ASYLLR), stratified by sex and age (in eighteen five-year age intervals), along with average annual percentage changes. Standard LE (2021) and the World Population Age Standard (2021) were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study.
Results: The DM incidence and ASIR showed significant variability, ranging from 1,160 cases (45.4/ 100,000) in 2018 to 2,037 cases (71.0/100,000) in 2024. The annual incidence increased by 38.5%, while mortality rose by 7.3% per year, from 513 cases (15.0/100,000) to 759 cases (21.3/100,000). ASIR and ASMR increased overall by 31.3% and 6.6% (in the age group 65-74 years: 67.5% and 11.2%). YLL increased by 6.6%, from 9,107 in 2018 (279/100,000) to 12,976 in 2024 (388/100,000). The ASYLLR for persons over 65 years of age was nearly double that of younger people. The MIR rose by 32.9%. Incidence and death counts were higher for women (age ≥65 years), but men (aged 15-64 years) showed faster increases in ASIR, ASMR, YLL, and ASYLLR.
Conclusions: The rise in ASIR and ASMR, along with MIR, indicates that the Belgrade population, especially men and working-age people, needs targeted DM management and control.
Key messages: • Tracking changes in premature mortality, along with the incidence of diabetes mellitus, is essential for the formulation of targeted health strategies.
• Healthcare stakeholders should tailor diabetes management and prevention for the working-age population, as their mortality-to-incidence ratio indicates an increasing trend.
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BibTeX
@article{milicevic2026mortalitytoincidence,
title = {{Mortality-to-Incidence Ratio of Diabetes Mellitus: 2018 – 2024 Progress Radar in Belgrade (Serbia)}},
author = {M M Šantrić Milićević and N Rosić and A Rommel and A Anton and M Vujetić and G Tamburkovski and Š Cilović-Lagarija and S Skočibušić},
journal = {The European Journal of Public Health},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.1132},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.1132},
note = {CC BY-NC 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Mortality-to-Incidence Ratio of Diabetes Mellitus: 2018 – 2024 Progress Radar in Belgrade (Serbia)
AU - M M Šantrić Milićević
AU - N Rosić
AU - A Rommel
AU - A Anton
AU - M Vujetić
AU - G Tamburkovski
AU - Š Cilović-Lagarija
AU - S Skočibušić
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/01
JO - The European Journal of Public Health
DO - 10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.1132
UR - https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.1132
AB - Background: The mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) can be used to monitor the progress of diabetes mellitus (DM) management. This study assesses changes in the MIR for DM in the Belgrade population (≈1.7 million) from 2018 to 2024. Methods: Population size, life expectancy (LE), registered DM deaths and incidence (International Classification of Diseases, ICD-X: E10-11) from anonymized population registries of the Belgrade City Institute of Public Health (2018-2024), were analyzed to assess MIR, age-standardized incidence, mortality and YLL rates per 100,000 (ASIR, ASMR and ASYLLR), stratified by sex and age (in eighteen five-year age intervals), along with average annual percentage changes. Standard LE (2021) and the World Population Age Standard (2021) were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study. Results: The DM incidence and ASIR showed significant variability, ranging from 1,160 cases (45.4/ 100,000) in 2018 to 2,037 cases (71.0/100,000) in 2024. The annual incidence increased by 38.5%, while mortality rose by 7.3% per year, from 513 cases (15.0/100,000) to 759 cases (21.3/100,000). ASIR and ASMR increased overall by 31.3% and 6.6% (in the age group 65-74 years: 67.5% and 11.2%). YLL increased by 6.6%, from 9,107 in 2018 (279/100,000) to 12,976 in 2024 (388/100,000). The ASYLLR for persons over 65 years of age was nearly double that of younger people. The MIR rose by 32.9%. Incidence and death counts were higher for women (age ≥65 years), but men (aged 15-64 years) showed faster increases in ASIR, ASMR, YLL, and ASYLLR. Conclusions: The rise in ASIR and ASMR, along with MIR, indicates that the Belgrade population, especially men and working-age people, needs targeted DM management and control. Key messages: • Tracking changes in premature mortality, along with the incidence of diabetes mellitus, is essential for the formulation of targeted health strategies. • Healthcare stakeholders should tailor diabetes management and prevention for the working-age population, as their mortality-to-incidence ratio indicates an increasing trend.
SN - 1101-1262
SN - 1464-360X
ER -