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Peer-reviewedLicence not statedNature Human Behaviour

Stochastic models indicate rapid smallpox spread and mass mortality of Indigenous Australians after colonial exposure

  • Matthew C. Nitschke1,2,3,4
  • Alan N. Williams5,6,7,8
  • Shane Ingrey9,5,10,11,12,13
  • Billy Griffiths14,15
  • Nicholas Pitt16,17
  • Lynette Russell9,5,18,19
  • Sean Ulm5,20
  • Kirsty Beller10,13
  • Michael I. Bird9,5,20
  • Syeda Afroz Fatima21,22,23
  • Ian J. McNiven9,5,18,19
  • Frédérik Saltré9,5,21,23
3 more authors
  • Alison Bashford5,16,24
  • Christopher Wilson9,5,25,26
  • Corey J. A. Bradshaw9,5,21,4
26 affiliations
  1. 1ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia. [email protected]
  2. 2Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia. [email protected]
  3. 3Global Ecology | Partuyarta Ngadluku Wardli Kuu, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia. [email protected]
  4. 4Flinders University
  5. 5Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia
  6. 6EMM Consulting, St Leonards, New South Wales, Australia
  7. 7School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
  8. 8EMM Consulting
  9. 9ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia
  10. 10Gujaga Foundation, La Perouse, New South Wales, Australia
  11. 11School of Earth, Atmospheric and Life Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia
  12. 12School of Humanities and Languages, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
  13. 13Gujaga Foundation
  14. 14Alfred Deakin Institute, Deakin University, Burwood, Victoria, Australia
  15. 15Deakin University
  16. 16Laureate Centre for History and Population, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
  17. 17Laureate Centre for History, University of New South Wales
  18. 18Monash Indigenous Studies Centre, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
  19. 19Monash University
  20. 20James Cook University
  21. 21Global Ecology | Partuyarta Ngadluku Wardli Kuu, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
  22. 22The Kids Research Institute Australia, Nedlands, Western Australia, Australia
  23. 23Global Ecology, Flinders University
  24. 24Laureate Centre for History and Population, University of New South Wales
  25. 25College of Arts, Law and Education, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
  26. 26University of Tasmania
Open at sourceDOICite

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{nitschke2026stochastic,
  title = {{Stochastic models indicate rapid smallpox spread and mass mortality of Indigenous Australians after colonial exposure}},
  author = {Matthew C. Nitschke and Alan N. Williams and Shane Ingrey and Billy Griffiths and Nicholas Pitt and Lynette Russell and Sean Ulm and Kirsty Beller and Michael I. Bird and Syeda Afroz Fatima and Ian J. McNiven and Frédérik Saltré and Alison Bashford and Christopher Wilson and Corey J. A. Bradshaw},
  journal = {Nature Human Behaviour},
  year = {2026},
  month = jul,
  doi = {10.1038/s41562-026-02504-6},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5683492/v1},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Stochastic models indicate rapid smallpox spread and mass mortality of Indigenous Australians after colonial exposure
AU  - Matthew C. Nitschke
AU  - Alan N. Williams
AU  - Shane Ingrey
AU  - Billy Griffiths
AU  - Nicholas Pitt
AU  - Lynette Russell
AU  - Sean Ulm
AU  - Kirsty Beller
AU  - Michael I. Bird
AU  - Syeda Afroz Fatima
AU  - Ian J. McNiven
AU  - Frédérik Saltré
AU  - Alison Bashford
AU  - Christopher Wilson
AU  - Corey J. A. Bradshaw
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/07/09
JO  - Nature Human Behaviour
DO  - 10.1038/s41562-026-02504-6
UR  - https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5683492/v1
SN  - 2397-3374
ER  -