PepC-Global: A Basin-Tuned Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Model with Enhanced Out-of-Sample Skill and Climate-Sensitive Over-Land Decay
Abstract
We present PepC-Global, a global version of the Princeton environment-dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone (PepC) framework that uniquely implements basin-wise tuning within a single unified tropical cyclone climatology model. PepC-Global represents tropical cyclone climatology as a coupled stochastic process linking genesis, track, and intensity conditioned on large-scale environmental predictors. Each of the genesis, track, and intensity modules outperforms widely used linear models in out-of-sample tests. The intensity module also incorporates an environment-dependent over-land decay model, offering greater sensitivity to climate change signals than conventional fixed decay rate approaches. Systematic evaluation against observations demonstrates that PepC-Global closely reproduces genesis basin-wise frequency, seasonal cycles, interannual variability, and spatial distributions. The model also accurately captures basin-wise track patterns, along-coastline landfall frequency, and intensity statistics including lifetime maximum intensity and landfall intensity distributions. PepC-Global provides a versatile tool for probabilistic tropical cyclone hazard and risk assessment and a practical framework for investigating changes in tropical cyclone activity across future climate scenarios.
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BibTeX
@misc{gao2026pepcglobal,
title = {{PepC-Global: A Basin-Tuned Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Model with Enhanced Out-of-Sample Skill and Climate-Sensitive Over-Land Decay}},
author = {Cong Gao and Ning Lin},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.14259},
eprint = {2609.14259},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.14259},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - PepC-Global: A Basin-Tuned Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Model with Enhanced Out-of-Sample Skill and Climate-Sensitive Over-Land Decay
AU - Cong Gao
AU - Ning Lin
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/12
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.14259
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.14259
AB - We present PepC-Global, a global version of the Princeton environment-dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone (PepC) framework that uniquely implements basin-wise tuning within a single unified tropical cyclone climatology model. PepC-Global represents tropical cyclone climatology as a coupled stochastic process linking genesis, track, and intensity conditioned on large-scale environmental predictors. Each of the genesis, track, and intensity modules outperforms widely used linear models in out-of-sample tests. The intensity module also incorporates an environment-dependent over-land decay model, offering greater sensitivity to climate change signals than conventional fixed decay rate approaches. Systematic evaluation against observations demonstrates that PepC-Global closely reproduces genesis basin-wise frequency, seasonal cycles, interannual variability, and spatial distributions. The model also accurately captures basin-wise track patterns, along-coastline landfall frequency, and intensity statistics including lifetime maximum intensity and landfall intensity distributions. PepC-Global provides a versatile tool for probabilistic tropical cyclone hazard and risk assessment and a practical framework for investigating changes in tropical cyclone activity across future climate scenarios.
ER -