Historical climate extremes in Europe and the connection between spring precipitation and summer heat
- 1University of Bern (Bern, Switzerland)
Abstract
Hot European summers are often preceded by dry springs such as in 2022, but also in 1473 or 1540, two well-known summers of catastrophic heat. Spring precipitation deficits deplete soil moisture levels, which can amplify extreme summer temperature anomalies in Europe through land-atmosphere feedback mechanisms and altered atmospheric circulation. However, the link is not particularly strong, and hence long time series might help to better elucidate the mechanisms. Starting from documentary data and an atlas of temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation over Europe for climate extremes in the last 600 years, we explore this relationship in more detail. We analyse the extreme heat summer of 1473, which followed dry spring conditions in Southeastern Europe related to a positive East Atlantic pattern. We then use the ModE-RA paleo-reanalysis and combine it with an analysis of 11 760 years of atmospheric model simulations as well as other reanalyses and reconstructions. Using a moving climatology approach with LOESS regressions to calculate anomalies, we identify significant negative correlations between winter-spring precipitation and summer temperatures in all data sets in the latitude band 36–48 ° N (strongest over southeastern Europe), corresponding to known moisture-limited regions. Moreover, apart from precipitation anomalies, hot summers are preceded by increased blocking over north-central Europe and a positive East Atlantic pattern. Conversely, dry winter-springs are followed by more frequent blocking over northern Europe and, in model simulations, an increase in frequency and intensity of summer heatwaves. A linear regression approach for temperature in the northern Mediterranean region shows that precipitation in April and May has a strong, direct influence that does not vanish when taking the detailed atmospheric circulation in winter, spring, and summer into account, and hence cannot be explained by the effect of circulation on both, spring precipitation and summer temperature.
Versions
Related
- Increasing daily precipitation extremes despite declining annual totals in southern Europe: a modeling study on the effects of Mediterranean Sea warming
- Climatic extremes and their social implications in 17th century Transylvania: An historical climate reconstruction
- CMIP6‐Driven CaMa‐Flood Simulations Reveal Anthropogenic Control on Global Flood Extremes via Precipitation and Snowmelt Drivers
- Synchronized heat extremes over western Europe and the Yangtze–Huai River Basin during summer 2025
- Climatic extremes in Brazil: a parallel analysis of historical trends and socioeconomical impacts
BibTeX
@article{lipfert2026historical,
title = {{Historical climate extremes in Europe and the connection between spring precipitation and summer heat}},
author = {Laura Lipfert and Ralf Hand and Angela-Maria Burgdorf and Christian Pfister and Heinz Wanner and Stefan Brönnimann},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.5194/cp-22-1863-2026},
url = {https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/22/1863/2026/},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Historical climate extremes in Europe and the connection between spring precipitation and summer heat
AU - Laura Lipfert
AU - Ralf Hand
AU - Angela-Maria Burgdorf
AU - Christian Pfister
AU - Heinz Wanner
AU - Stefan Brönnimann
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/07
JO - Climate of the Past
DO - 10.5194/cp-22-1863-2026
UR - https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/22/1863/2026/
AB - Hot European summers are often preceded by dry springs such as in 2022, but also in 1473 or 1540, two well-known summers of catastrophic heat. Spring precipitation deficits deplete soil moisture levels, which can amplify extreme summer temperature anomalies in Europe through land-atmosphere feedback mechanisms and altered atmospheric circulation. However, the link is not particularly strong, and hence long time series might help to better elucidate the mechanisms. Starting from documentary data and an atlas of temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation over Europe for climate extremes in the last 600 years, we explore this relationship in more detail. We analyse the extreme heat summer of 1473, which followed dry spring conditions in Southeastern Europe related to a positive East Atlantic pattern. We then use the ModE-RA paleo-reanalysis and combine it with an analysis of 11 760 years of atmospheric model simulations as well as other reanalyses and reconstructions. Using a moving climatology approach with LOESS regressions to calculate anomalies, we identify significant negative correlations between winter-spring precipitation and summer temperatures in all data sets in the latitude band 36–48 ° N (strongest over southeastern Europe), corresponding to known moisture-limited regions. Moreover, apart from precipitation anomalies, hot summers are preceded by increased blocking over north-central Europe and a positive East Atlantic pattern. Conversely, dry winter-springs are followed by more frequent blocking over northern Europe and, in model simulations, an increase in frequency and intensity of summer heatwaves. A linear regression approach for temperature in the northern Mediterranean region shows that precipitation in April and May has a strong, direct influence that does not vanish when taking the detailed atmospheric circulation in winter, spring, and summer into account, and hence cannot be explained by the effect of circulation on both, spring precipitation and summer temperature.
SN - 1814-9332
ER -