Observational Test of the Maximum-Entropy Conjecture for Black-Hole Mergers with GW250114
Abstract
The remnants of binary black-hole (BBH) mergers are accurately described by numerical relativity, but the physical principle governing the selection of the final states remains unclear. A recently proposed maximum-entropy conjecture suggests that a BBH merger produces the Kerr BH that maximizes the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy, subject to the post-Newtonian formalism or balance laws for energy and angular momentum. In this work, we test this conjecture with the event GW250114, inferring the progenitor and remnant properties from the observed pre-merge and post-merge signals, separately. We construct the surrogate Kerr entropy associated with candidate remnant states along the inferred energy-angular-momentum trajectory. We then compare the maximum-entropy state with the independently inferred mass and dimensionless spin of the final BH. We find that the conjecture predicts a remnant mass of Mf=70.0+0.35−0.21 M⊙ and spin of χf=0.70+0.00−0.01, compared with the ringdown estimates Mf=72.3+3.6−3.7 M⊙ and χf=0.74+0.05−0.07. The entropy deviation is consistent with zero within the 68% credible interval for our fiducial analysis, and variations in the pre-merger truncation time and quasi-normal modes (QNM) content reveal no compelling discrepancy with the conjecture.
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BibTeX
@misc{jiang2026observational,
title = {{Observational Test of the Maximum-Entropy Conjecture for Black-Hole Mergers with GW250114}},
author = {Yang Jiang and Qing-Guo Huang},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2611.05718},
eprint = {2611.05718},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.05718},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Observational Test of the Maximum-Entropy Conjecture for Black-Hole Mergers with GW250114
AU - Yang Jiang
AU - Qing-Guo Huang
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/03
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2611.05718
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.05718
AB - The remnants of binary black-hole (BBH) mergers are accurately described by numerical relativity, but the physical principle governing the selection of the final states remains unclear. A recently proposed maximum-entropy conjecture suggests that a BBH merger produces the Kerr BH that maximizes the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy, subject to the post-Newtonian formalism or balance laws for energy and angular momentum. In this work, we test this conjecture with the event GW250114, inferring the progenitor and remnant properties from the observed pre-merge and post-merge signals, separately. We construct the surrogate Kerr entropy associated with candidate remnant states along the inferred energy-angular-momentum trajectory. We then compare the maximum-entropy state with the independently inferred mass and dimensionless spin of the final BH. We find that the conjecture predicts a remnant mass of M_f=70.0^+0.35_−0.21 M_⊙ and spin of χ_f=0.70^+0.00_−0.01, compared with the ringdown estimates M_f=72.3^+3.6_−3.7 M_⊙ and χ_f=0.74^+0.05_−0.07. The entropy deviation is consistent with zero within the 68% credible interval for our fiducial analysis, and variations in the pre-merger truncation time and quasi-normal modes (QNM) content reveal no compelling discrepancy with the conjecture.
ER -