Factors associated with persistent high use of emergency departments: a nationwide retrospective cohort study
9 affiliations
- 1Psychological and Social Medicine, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, Leeds, UK
- 2College of Medicine and Health, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- 3School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- 4Academic Unit of Primary Medical Care, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- 5Dept of Health Sciences, YBRI, University of York, York, UK
- 6Hull York Medical School, University of York, York, UK
- 7Academic Unit of Health Economics, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- 8HEOR, Lumanity, London, UK
- 9Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, Leeds, UK
Abstract
Objectives: To identify patient and attendance characteristics that predict persistent high use of emergency departments (EDs) in England and to quantify the relationship between these factors and the duration an individual remains a high user.
Design: Nationwide retrospective cohort study using a Cox proportional hazards model with random effects.
Setting: EDs across England, using linked national healthcare datasets including hospital admissions, General Practice (GP) prescribing data and mortality records from January 2016 to December 2019.
Participants: The total national dataset comprised approximately 150 million ED attendances by 30 million adult patients (aged>18). From this, a random sample of 5 million individuals was analysed. In the 2017 calendar year, 1 766 208 individuals attended the ED, of which 91 034 (5.2%) met the criteria for high use (defined as five or more attendances within a 12-month period).
Primary and secondary outcome measures: The primary outcome was the length of time an individual remained in the ‘high user’ status. Predictors were measured using HRs to determine the likelihood of transitioning out of high-user status (where an HR<1.00 indicates a longer duration of high use).
Results: Several factors significantly predicted prolonged high-user status. Strong predictors (expressed as HRs) included: use of hypnotics and anxiolytics (HR=0.64), antipsychotics (HR=0.67), opioid analgesics (HR=0.73) and non-opioid analgesics (HR=0.74), being a ‘burst’ attender (HR=0.55), social deprivation (HR=0.81), leaving the department after refusing treatment (HR=0.77), leaving before being treated (HR=0.86) and having ‘nothing abnormal detected’ during the visit (HR=0.88).
Conclusions: Persistent high ED use is strongly associated with prescriptions for analgesics and mental health medications, as well as specific attendance behaviours like ‘burst’ patterns and leaving without treatment. These findings suggest that healthcare providers should prioritise proactive care plans, enhanced mental health support and specialised pain management strategies to intervene before patients become long-term frequent users. Further research into the efficacy of these specific interventions for ‘burst’ attenders is warranted.
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BibTeX
@article{kumar2026factors,
title = {{Factors associated with persistent high use of emergency departments: a nationwide retrospective cohort study}},
author = {Akshay Kumar and Catriona Marshall and Sonia Saraiva and William Lee and Suzanne Mason and Christopher D Burton and Christina Maria van der Feltz-Cornelis and Robert M West and Chris Bojke and Richard Mattock and Samuel David Relton and Elspeth Guthrie},
journal = {BMJ Open},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1136/bmjopen-2026-123062},
url = {https://bmjopen.bmj.com/lookup/doi/10.1136/bmjopen-2026-123062},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Factors associated with persistent high use of emergency departments: a nationwide retrospective cohort study
AU - Akshay Kumar
AU - Catriona Marshall
AU - Sonia Saraiva
AU - William Lee
AU - Suzanne Mason
AU - Christopher D Burton
AU - Christina Maria van der Feltz-Cornelis
AU - Robert M West
AU - Chris Bojke
AU - Richard Mattock
AU - Samuel David Relton
AU - Elspeth Guthrie
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/07
JO - BMJ Open
DO - 10.1136/bmjopen-2026-123062
UR - https://bmjopen.bmj.com/lookup/doi/10.1136/bmjopen-2026-123062
AB - Objectives: To identify patient and attendance characteristics that predict persistent high use of emergency departments (EDs) in England and to quantify the relationship between these factors and the duration an individual remains a high user. Design: Nationwide retrospective cohort study using a Cox proportional hazards model with random effects. Setting: EDs across England, using linked national healthcare datasets including hospital admissions, General Practice (GP) prescribing data and mortality records from January 2016 to December 2019. Participants: The total national dataset comprised approximately 150 million ED attendances by 30 million adult patients (aged>18). From this, a random sample of 5 million individuals was analysed. In the 2017 calendar year, 1 766 208 individuals attended the ED, of which 91 034 (5.2%) met the criteria for high use (defined as five or more attendances within a 12-month period). Primary and secondary outcome measures: The primary outcome was the length of time an individual remained in the ‘high user’ status. Predictors were measured using HRs to determine the likelihood of transitioning out of high-user status (where an HR<1.00 indicates a longer duration of high use). Results: Several factors significantly predicted prolonged high-user status. Strong predictors (expressed as HRs) included: use of hypnotics and anxiolytics (HR=0.64), antipsychotics (HR=0.67), opioid analgesics (HR=0.73) and non-opioid analgesics (HR=0.74), being a ‘burst’ attender (HR=0.55), social deprivation (HR=0.81), leaving the department after refusing treatment (HR=0.77), leaving before being treated (HR=0.86) and having ‘nothing abnormal detected’ during the visit (HR=0.88). Conclusions: Persistent high ED use is strongly associated with prescriptions for analgesics and mental health medications, as well as specific attendance behaviours like ‘burst’ patterns and leaving without treatment. These findings suggest that healthcare providers should prioritise proactive care plans, enhanced mental health support and specialised pain management strategies to intervene before patients become long-term frequent users. Further research into the efficacy of these specific interventions for ‘burst’ attenders is warranted.
SN - 2044-6055
SN - 2044-6055
ER -