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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Mathematics

Bayesian Parameter Estimation of Cannibalism Dynamics in Larval Atractosteus tropicus Under Different Feeding Conditions

  1. 1Tecnológico Nacional de México-Instituto Tecnológico Superior de Comalcalco, Carretera Vecinal Comalcalco-Paraiso Km. 2, Rancheria Occidente 3ra. Sección, Comalcalco C.P. 86650, Tabasco, Mexico
  2. 2División Académica de Ciencias Básicas, Universidad Juárez Autónoma de Tabasco, Carretera Cunduacán-Jalpa de Méndez, Km. 1, Cunduacán C.P. 86690, Tabasco, Mexico
  3. 3Laboratorio de Fisiología en Recursos Acuáticos (LAFIRA), División Académica de Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad Juárez Autónoma de Tabasco, Carretera Villahermosa-Cárdenas Km. 0.5, Villahermosa C.P. 86039, Tabasco, Mexico

Abstract

In this work, Bayesian estimation is performed for the parameters of a mathematical model, formulated as a system of ordinary differential equations, that describes cannibalism dynamics in larval populations of Atractosteus tropicus reared in a pond. The model divides the population into three subclasses: vulnerable, cannibalistic, and non-vulnerable individuals. Parameter estimation is conducted under two scenarios: a fed population and an unfed population. Correlation matrices are calculated for both cases. For the fed population, the most influential parameters are food quality and the time devoted to managing cannibalistic individuals. In contrast, for the unfed population, the strongest correlation occurs between the mortality rate and the transition rate of cannibalistic individuals to the non-vulnerable class. Therefore, providing larvae with high-quality food substantially reduces cannibalism and the handling time required and, consequently, increases the survival of the species.

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BibTeX
@article{gonzalezaguirre2026bayesian,
  title = {{Bayesian Parameter Estimation of Cannibalism Dynamics in Larval Atractosteus tropicus Under Different Feeding Conditions}},
  author = {Juan Carlos González-Aguirre and María Fernanda Jiménez and Gamaliel Blé and Rafael Martínez-García and Carlos Alfonso Álvarez-González and Alam Yair Hidalgo},
  journal = {Mathematics},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.3390/math14213855},
  url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/14/21/3855},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Bayesian Parameter Estimation of Cannibalism Dynamics in Larval Atractosteus tropicus Under Different Feeding Conditions
AU  - Juan Carlos González-Aguirre
AU  - María Fernanda Jiménez
AU  - Gamaliel Blé
AU  - Rafael Martínez-García
AU  - Carlos Alfonso Álvarez-González
AU  - Alam Yair Hidalgo
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/22
JO  - Mathematics
DO  - 10.3390/math14213855
UR  - https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/14/21/3855
AB  - In this work, Bayesian estimation is performed for the parameters of a mathematical model, formulated as a system of ordinary differential equations, that describes cannibalism dynamics in larval populations of Atractosteus tropicus reared in a pond. The model divides the population into three subclasses: vulnerable, cannibalistic, and non-vulnerable individuals. Parameter estimation is conducted under two scenarios: a fed population and an unfed population. Correlation matrices are calculated for both cases. For the fed population, the most influential parameters are food quality and the time devoted to managing cannibalistic individuals. In contrast, for the unfed population, the strongest correlation occurs between the mortality rate and the transition rate of cannibalistic individuals to the non-vulnerable class. Therefore, providing larvae with high-quality food substantially reduces cannibalism and the handling time required and, consequently, increases the survival of the species.
SN  - 2227-7390
ER  -