Model-Uncertainty-Aware Digital Twins for Non-Markovian Quantum Repeater Memories
Abstract
Quantum-repeater controllers need reliable estimates of stored entanglement as adjacent links are generated. Fixed exponential lifetimes miss non-Markovian revivals, while complex surrogates are unnecessary when the microscopic family is known. We present QMemTwin, a physics-constrained digital twin that accounts for model uncertainty. It calibrates a bank of contractive passive state-space models, combines their amplitudes with finite-sample-corrected Akaike weights, and abstains when temporal-holdout data indicate unsupported dynamics. Passivity guarantees a completely positive, trace-preserving amplitude-damping channel for each candidate and their convex amplitude average. We evaluate [N cases] synthetic memories: [N supported] supported passive time-invariant cases and [N structural] nonstationary structural-shift cases. In the matched one-pseudomode regime, the correctly specified one-pseudomode fit performs best. Across [N unknown] supported cases with uncertain families, QMemTwin reduces population RMSE by [population reduction]% and Bell-fidelity RMSE by [Bell reduction]% relative to the two-pseudomode model; both paired effects remain significant after Holm correction. The flexible passive model has a slightly lower mean error for unknown families but is statistically indistinguishable from QMemTwin and loses accuracy in the matched regime. The temporal-holdout gate detects [detection]% of structural shifts, with [false alarm]% false alarms on supported families and AUROC [AUC]. In 2-, 4-, and 8-link repeater chains, the mixed cohort shows no significant 8-link goodput gain. A predeclared high-backflow stress cohort yields an 8-link goodput gain of [goodput gain]% over the two-pseudomode model, with paired p = [p value]. These results favor using a known family when available, accounting for model uncertainty otherwise and abstaining on unsupported dynamics.
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BibTeX
@misc{haseeb2026modeluncertaintyaware,
title = {{Model-Uncertainty-Aware Digital Twins for Non-Markovian Quantum Repeater Memories}},
author = {Muhammad Waqas Haseeb},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.34506},
eprint = {2610.34506},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.34506},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Model-Uncertainty-Aware Digital Twins for Non-Markovian Quantum Repeater Memories
AU - Muhammad Waqas Haseeb
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/25
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.34506
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.34506
AB - Quantum-repeater controllers need reliable estimates of stored entanglement as adjacent links are generated. Fixed exponential lifetimes miss non-Markovian revivals, while complex surrogates are unnecessary when the microscopic family is known. We present QMemTwin, a physics-constrained digital twin that accounts for model uncertainty. It calibrates a bank of contractive passive state-space models, combines their amplitudes with finite-sample-corrected Akaike weights, and abstains when temporal-holdout data indicate unsupported dynamics. Passivity guarantees a completely positive, trace-preserving amplitude-damping channel for each candidate and their convex amplitude average. We evaluate [N cases] synthetic memories: [N supported] supported passive time-invariant cases and [N structural] nonstationary structural-shift cases. In the matched one-pseudomode regime, the correctly specified one-pseudomode fit performs best. Across [N unknown] supported cases with uncertain families, QMemTwin reduces population RMSE by [population reduction]% and Bell-fidelity RMSE by [Bell reduction]% relative to the two-pseudomode model; both paired effects remain significant after Holm correction. The flexible passive model has a slightly lower mean error for unknown families but is statistically indistinguishable from QMemTwin and loses accuracy in the matched regime. The temporal-holdout gate detects [detection]% of structural shifts, with [false alarm]% false alarms on supported families and AUROC [AUC]. In 2-, 4-, and 8-link repeater chains, the mixed cohort shows no significant 8-link goodput gain. A predeclared high-backflow stress cohort yields an 8-link goodput gain of [goodput gain]% over the two-pseudomode model, with paired p = [p value]. These results favor using a known family when available, accounting for model uncertainty otherwise and abstaining on unsupported dynamics.
ER -