From Product Evidence to Access Rights: Auditing and Routing Non-Firm Grid Connections
Abstract
Non-firm connection products can accelerate grid access while reinforcements are delayed, but their planning value depends on evidence supporting the contractual promise. We develop a one-way evidence-to-access framework for calendarized products. Stage A constructs and fixes directional restriction calendars from public residual-load and day-ahead price-timing signals. Stage B audits the submitted calendar and one bounded common repair, tests joint threshold attainability under the shared annual budget, and applies an aggregation-aware Power Transfer Distribution Factor (PTDF) certificate. Stage C treats the resulting ledger as fixed in queue-aware allocation and intervention planning. In the primary policy-package evaluation, the evidence-supported menu returns the same $2.119$~GW allocation as firm-only access, whereas authorizing the uniformly derated fallback raises awards to $6.442$~GW and reduces backlog from $136.076$ to $113.601$~GW-years; all $4.489$~GW of non-firm awards use the fallback. In a target-free matched control, evidence-routed and state-blind fallback menus attain primary objectives equivalent within EUR~1 and return the same accepted applicants, award years, routes, and intervention portfolio. Thus, in the reported testbed, fallback authorization rather than calendar-specific evidence support drives the access-volume effect.
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BibTeX
@misc{kryeziu2026from,
title = {{From Product Evidence to Access Rights: Auditing and Routing Non-Firm Grid Connections}},
author = {Alban Kryeziu and Stuart X. Zhu and Evrim Ursavas},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.15510},
eprint = {2610.15510},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.15510},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - From Product Evidence to Access Rights: Auditing and Routing Non-Firm Grid Connections
AU - Alban Kryeziu
AU - Stuart X. Zhu
AU - Evrim Ursavas
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/11
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.15510
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.15510
AB - Non-firm connection products can accelerate grid access while reinforcements are delayed, but their planning value depends on evidence supporting the contractual promise. We develop a one-way evidence-to-access framework for calendarized products. Stage A constructs and fixes directional restriction calendars from public residual-load and day-ahead price-timing signals. Stage B audits the submitted calendar and one bounded common repair, tests joint threshold attainability under the shared annual budget, and applies an aggregation-aware Power Transfer Distribution Factor (PTDF) certificate. Stage C treats the resulting ledger as fixed in queue-aware allocation and intervention planning. In the primary policy-package evaluation, the evidence-supported menu returns the same $2.119$~GW allocation as firm-only access, whereas authorizing the uniformly derated fallback raises awards to $6.442$~GW and reduces backlog from $136.076$ to $113.601$~GW-years; all $4.489$~GW of non-firm awards use the fallback. In a target-free matched control, evidence-routed and state-blind fallback menus attain primary objectives equivalent within EUR~1 and return the same accepted applicants, award years, routes, and intervention portfolio. Thus, in the reported testbed, fallback authorization rather than calendar-specific evidence support drives the access-volume effect.
ER -