The growing burden of myopia in Europe: evidence from population-based cohorts
Abstract
Myopia is a childhood-onset condition driven by excessive axial ocular elongation, associated with increased risk of sight-threatening complications and irreversible visual impairment. Despite rising global prevalence, epidemiological data on long-term trends in Europe remain limited. This study examines temporal trends in myopia prevalence and axial length (AL) across European adult birth cohorts. We conducted a comparative birth-cohort analysis using harmonised data from 28 population-based studies (n = 81,828) across nine countries participating in the European Eye Epidemiology (E3) Consortium. Myopia prevalence (overall, by severity, and sex) were estimated using individual participant data random-effects meta-analysis. AL distributions were assessed by estimating percentiles across birth cohorts. Myopia prevalence more than tripled across 20th-century birth cohorts, rising from 18.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15.2%, 21.3%) in the 1900s to 61.4% (95% CI: 55.5%, 66.9%) in the 1990s (p < 0.001), with increased prevalence across all severity levels. Standardised to the 2024 European population, myopia prevalence was estimated at 42.7% (95% CI: 40.2%, 45.1%). Myopia prevalence was similar between males and females overall. AL was longer in successive decades (1920–1970) across all population centiles (p < 0.001), indicating a population-wide shift. Myopia prevalence and AL have increased markedly across European birth cohorts throughout the twentieth century, affecting all severity levels and both sexes. These findings underscore the importance of preventive strategies targeting modifiable environmental risk factors, alongside continued evaluation of interventions intended to slow myopia progression, as continued increases may strain healthcare systems and society.
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BibTeX
@article{tiemens2026growing,
title = {{The growing burden of myopia in Europe: evidence from population-based cohorts}},
author = {Amber Tiemens and Dirk van Hemert and Sena Lemma and Sara Quist and Kun Shi - van Wielink and David Agius and Louis Arnould and Tos Berendschot and Ansgar Beuse and Mukharram Bikbov and Johannes Birtel and Vasiliki Bountziouka and Monique Breteler and Francis Carbonaro and Usha Chakravarthy and Rita Coimbra and Victor de Vries and Cécile Delcourt and Claudia Farinha and Robert Finger and Mohsen Ghanbari and Dimitris Giannoulis and Carsten Grohmann and Chris Hammond and Frank Holz and Jost Jonas and Gyulli Kazakbaeva and Anthony Khawaja and Toralf Kirsten and Sander Kneepkens and Simon König and Melanie Le Goff and Johanna Liinamaa and Julian Mamo and Matthias Mauschitz and Jan Roelof Polling and Jugnoo Rahi and Franziska Rauscher and Ville Saarela and Alexander Schuster and Kelsey Stuart and Fotis Topouzis and Freekje van Asten and Anna Maria Welzel and Peter Wolfrum and Caroline Klaver and Katie Williams and Stephen Beatty and Geir Bertelsen and Mukharram Bikbov and Martin Bobak and Camiel Boon and Caroline Brandl and Rebecca Broe and Alain Bron and Maria Luz Cachulo and Isabelle Carrière and Birte Isabelle and Annemarie Johanna Colijn and Audrey Cougnard-Grégoire},
journal = {European Journal of Epidemiology},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1007/s10654-026-01435-w},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05858141v1},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - The growing burden of myopia in Europe: evidence from population-based cohorts
AU - Amber Tiemens
AU - Dirk van Hemert
AU - Sena Lemma
AU - Sara Quist
AU - Kun Shi - van Wielink
AU - David Agius
AU - Louis Arnould
AU - Tos Berendschot
AU - Ansgar Beuse
AU - Mukharram Bikbov
AU - Johannes Birtel
AU - Vasiliki Bountziouka
AU - Monique Breteler
AU - Francis Carbonaro
AU - Usha Chakravarthy
AU - Rita Coimbra
AU - Victor de Vries
AU - Cécile Delcourt
AU - Claudia Farinha
AU - Robert Finger
AU - Mohsen Ghanbari
AU - Dimitris Giannoulis
AU - Carsten Grohmann
AU - Chris Hammond
AU - Frank Holz
AU - Jost Jonas
AU - Gyulli Kazakbaeva
AU - Anthony Khawaja
AU - Toralf Kirsten
AU - Sander Kneepkens
AU - Simon König
AU - Melanie Le Goff
AU - Johanna Liinamaa
AU - Julian Mamo
AU - Matthias Mauschitz
AU - Jan Roelof Polling
AU - Jugnoo Rahi
AU - Franziska Rauscher
AU - Ville Saarela
AU - Alexander Schuster
AU - Kelsey Stuart
AU - Fotis Topouzis
AU - Freekje van Asten
AU - Anna Maria Welzel
AU - Peter Wolfrum
AU - Caroline Klaver
AU - Katie Williams
AU - Stephen Beatty
AU - Geir Bertelsen
AU - Mukharram Bikbov
AU - Martin Bobak
AU - Camiel Boon
AU - Caroline Brandl
AU - Rebecca Broe
AU - Alain Bron
AU - Maria Luz Cachulo
AU - Isabelle Carrière
AU - Birte Isabelle
AU - Annemarie Johanna Colijn
AU - Audrey Cougnard-Grégoire
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/08
JO - European Journal of Epidemiology
DO - 10.1007/s10654-026-01435-w
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05858141v1
AB - Myopia is a childhood-onset condition driven by excessive axial ocular elongation, associated with increased risk of sight-threatening complications and irreversible visual impairment. Despite rising global prevalence, epidemiological data on long-term trends in Europe remain limited. This study examines temporal trends in myopia prevalence and axial length (AL) across European adult birth cohorts. We conducted a comparative birth-cohort analysis using harmonised data from 28 population-based studies (n = 81,828) across nine countries participating in the European Eye Epidemiology (E3) Consortium. Myopia prevalence (overall, by severity, and sex) were estimated using individual participant data random-effects meta-analysis. AL distributions were assessed by estimating percentiles across birth cohorts. Myopia prevalence more than tripled across 20th-century birth cohorts, rising from 18.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15.2%, 21.3%) in the 1900s to 61.4% (95% CI: 55.5%, 66.9%) in the 1990s (p < 0.001), with increased prevalence across all severity levels. Standardised to the 2024 European population, myopia prevalence was estimated at 42.7% (95% CI: 40.2%, 45.1%). Myopia prevalence was similar between males and females overall. AL was longer in successive decades (1920–1970) across all population centiles (p < 0.001), indicating a population-wide shift. Myopia prevalence and AL have increased markedly across European birth cohorts throughout the twentieth century, affecting all severity levels and both sexes. These findings underscore the importance of preventive strategies targeting modifiable environmental risk factors, alongside continued evaluation of interventions intended to slow myopia progression, as continued increases may strain healthcare systems and society.
SN - 0393-2990
SN - 1573-7284
ER -