Achievement is predictable, historical memory is almost not: a zero-leakage cross-era holdout on 5,350 eminent figures falsifies the innate-trait theory of greatness
- 1Polytechnic Institute, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
Abstract
A zero-leakage prospective holdout. Trained on 1,424 figures born before 1800 with only birth-fixed features (sex, civilisation, domain, innate g, neurotype posterior P_ND); predicted the 2,513 figures born 1800-1950 (n=5,350; 425 positive; bootstrap 95% CIs). For posthumous textbook eminence, T0 AUC=0.577 (.550-.606), +g=0.556, +P_ND=0.558; the independent net contribution of P_ND was Delta AUC=+0.0025 (random-label control 0.485; halo room 0.009). For contemporaneous top achievement, adding g raised AUC from 0.558 to 0.818 while P_ND again added ~0 (Delta AUC=-0.0043). Rolling cutoffs (1600/1700/1800/1850) converged to 0.56-0.58 as samples grew; administrative/inherited-power domain g-only AUC=0.357 (below chance, separate logic). The 0.82-vs-0.57 gap is variance absent from birth-fixed models (period, recording technology, politics, network amplification, luck, symbolic need). The null falsifies a trait-to-eminence/destiny narrative and relocates explanation to intervene-able post-birth processes (harness); residual full-biography halo, right censoring, and domain pooling are stated. Short report; labels are most-plausible hypotheses, not diagnoses.
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BibTeX
@misc{xu2026achievement,
title = {{Achievement is predictable, historical memory is almost not: a zero-leakage cross-era holdout on 5,350 eminent figures falsifies the innate-trait theory of greatness}},
author = {Xin Xu},
howpublished = {Zenodo},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.23586779},
url = {https://zenodo.org/records/23586779},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Achievement is predictable, historical memory is almost not: a zero-leakage cross-era holdout on 5,350 eminent figures falsifies the innate-trait theory of greatness
AU - Xin Xu
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/24
PB - Zenodo
DO - 10.5281/zenodo.23586779
UR - https://zenodo.org/records/23586779
AB - A zero-leakage prospective holdout. Trained on 1,424 figures born before 1800 with only birth-fixed features (sex, civilisation, domain, innate g, neurotype posterior P_ND); predicted the 2,513 figures born 1800-1950 (n=5,350; 425 positive; bootstrap 95% CIs). For posthumous textbook eminence, T0 AUC=0.577 (.550-.606), +g=0.556, +P_ND=0.558; the independent net contribution of P_ND was Delta AUC=+0.0025 (random-label control 0.485; halo room 0.009). For contemporaneous top achievement, adding g raised AUC from 0.558 to 0.818 while P_ND again added ~0 (Delta AUC=-0.0043). Rolling cutoffs (1600/1700/1800/1850) converged to 0.56-0.58 as samples grew; administrative/inherited-power domain g-only AUC=0.357 (below chance, separate logic). The 0.82-vs-0.57 gap is variance absent from birth-fixed models (period, recording technology, politics, network amplification, luck, symbolic need). The null falsifies a trait-to-eminence/destiny narrative and relocates explanation to intervene-able post-birth processes (harness); residual full-biography halo, right censoring, and domain pooling are stated. Short report; labels are most-plausible hypotheses, not diagnoses.
ER -