Global trends and vaccine-associated changes in meningitis burden, 2000-2023: a multi-country ecological panel study
- 1Amran University
Abstract
BackgroundMeningitis remains a major cause of global morbidity and mortality. We aimed to quantify the association between vaccine introduction and meningitis- related disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates globally and across high-burden regions from 2000 to 2023.
MethodsWe conducted a longitudinal panel study of 188 countries using health metrics from the Global Burden of Disease study and WHO vaccine data. We estimated associations using two-way fixed effects regression models, adjusting for GDP and healthcare access. Analyses were stratified by baseline burden and included the African meningitis belt.
FindingsGlobally, meningitis DALY rates declined by 4.97% per year (p<0.0001). Introduction of the Hib vaccine was associated with a 6.7% reduction in DALY rates, and PCV with a 4.8% reduction. In high-burden countries, both vaccines were associated with larger reductions ([~]10%), while no significant effects were detected in low-burden settings. In the African meningitis belt, PCV introduction was associated with a substantial 16.8% reduction in DALY rates (p<0.0001). No significant global association was observed for meningococcal vaccines.
InterpretationGlobal declines in meningitis burden are strongly associated with Hib and PCV scale-up, with the greatest benefits in high-burden settings. These findings support prioritized vaccine deployment in endemic regions to maximize public health impact. However, the presence of pre-treatment trends for Hib suggests these estimates represent vaccine-associated population-level changes rather than strictly causal effects.
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BibTeX
@misc{aldhayani2026global,
title = {{Global trends and vaccine-associated changes in meningitis burden, 2000-2023: a multi-country ecological panel study}},
author = {K. M. Al-Dhayani},
howpublished = {medRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.64898/2026.09.14.26363017},
url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.14.26363017v1},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Global trends and vaccine-associated changes in meningitis burden, 2000-2023: a multi-country ecological panel study
AU - K. M. Al-Dhayani
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/14
PB - medRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.09.14.26363017
UR - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.14.26363017v1
AB - BackgroundMeningitis remains a major cause of global morbidity and mortality. We aimed to quantify the association between vaccine introduction and meningitis- related disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates globally and across high-burden regions from 2000 to 2023. MethodsWe conducted a longitudinal panel study of 188 countries using health metrics from the Global Burden of Disease study and WHO vaccine data. We estimated associations using two-way fixed effects regression models, adjusting for GDP and healthcare access. Analyses were stratified by baseline burden and included the African meningitis belt. FindingsGlobally, meningitis DALY rates declined by 4.97% per year (p<0.0001). Introduction of the Hib vaccine was associated with a 6.7% reduction in DALY rates, and PCV with a 4.8% reduction. In high-burden countries, both vaccines were associated with larger reductions ([~]10%), while no significant effects were detected in low-burden settings. In the African meningitis belt, PCV introduction was associated with a substantial 16.8% reduction in DALY rates (p<0.0001). No significant global association was observed for meningococcal vaccines. InterpretationGlobal declines in meningitis burden are strongly associated with Hib and PCV scale-up, with the greatest benefits in high-burden settings. These findings support prioritized vaccine deployment in endemic regions to maximize public health impact. However, the presence of pre-treatment trends for Hib suggests these estimates represent vaccine-associated population-level changes rather than strictly causal effects.
ER -