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Peer-reviewedCC BY-NC-NDNature

Rock weathering can counteract river CO2 emissions induced by permafrost thaw

  • Liwei Zhang1,2,3
  • Aaron Bufe4
  • Joshua F. Dean5
  • Gerard Rocher‐Ros6
  • Ryan Allen Sponseller6
  • Emily H. Stanley7
  • Jan Karlsson6
  • David Butman8
  • Ran Liu9
  • Lijun Hou3
  • Jinzhi Ding10
  • Shilong L. Piao1
2 more authors
  • Xinghui Xia11
  • Tom J. Battin12
12 affiliations
  1. 1Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
  2. 2Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences of Ministry of Education and State Key Laboratory of Wetland Conservation and Restoration, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
  3. 3State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
  4. 4Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany
  5. 5School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
  6. 6Climate Impacts Research Centre, Department of Ecology, Environment and Geoscience, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
  7. 7Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
  8. 8School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
  9. 9Beijing Key Laboratory of Biological Big Data and Topological Statistics, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China
  10. 10State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. [email protected]
  11. 11Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences of Ministry of Education and State Key Laboratory of Wetland Conservation and Restoration, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China. [email protected]
  12. 12River Ecosystems Laboratory, Alpine and Polar Environmental Research Center, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland
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Abstract

Climate-induced permafrost thaw unlocks large stores of organic carbon that are mineralized and emitted as carbon dioxide (CO2) from rivers to the atmosphere1. Concurrently, warming and permafrost thaw can increase mineral weathering rates, thus affecting the release and sequestration of inorganic carbon2–4. Yet how these biological and geological carbon cycles interact and jointly affect CO2 dynamics (emission compared with drawdown) in permafrost rivers remains unknown5. Here we combine CO2 emissions, organic and inorganic solute concentrations, dual carbon isotopes (δ13C–Δ14C) and geochemical modelling to infer how permafrost thaw may affect river biogeochemistry over decades to centuries across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Leveraging a gradient of thermal permafrost degradation, we find that river CO2 emissions decline, whereas solute fluxes from rock weathering increase with decreasing permafrost cover. Across this region, net CO2 drawdown fluxes from rock weathering are about 35% of river CO2 emissions, varying from around 15% in catchments with continuous permafrost to more than 100% in catchments with discontinuous or isolated permafrost. Thus, carbon fluxes from chemical weathering may become increasingly important with ongoing permafrost thaw, potentially even outpacing river CO2 emissions. Our findings disentangle the interplay between biological and geological carbon fluxes that are important for the cryosphere and the global carbon cycle. Permafrost thaw on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau increases rock-weathering rates while reducing river CO2 emissions, suggesting geological carbon fluxes may eventually outpace thaw-driven emissions.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{zhang2026rock,
  title = {{Rock weathering can counteract river CO2 emissions induced by permafrost thaw}},
  author = {Liwei Zhang and Aaron Bufe and Joshua F. Dean and Gerard Rocher‐Ros and Ryan Allen Sponseller and Emily H. Stanley and Jan Karlsson and David Butman and Ran Liu and Lijun Hou and Jinzhi Ding and Shilong L. Piao and Xinghui Xia and Tom J. Battin},
  journal = {Nature},
  year = {2026},
  month = jun,
  doi = {10.1038/s41586-026-10664-8},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10664-8},
  note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Rock weathering can counteract river CO2 emissions induced by permafrost thaw
AU  - Liwei Zhang
AU  - Aaron Bufe
AU  - Joshua F. Dean
AU  - Gerard Rocher‐Ros
AU  - Ryan Allen Sponseller
AU  - Emily H. Stanley
AU  - Jan Karlsson
AU  - David Butman
AU  - Ran Liu
AU  - Lijun Hou
AU  - Jinzhi Ding
AU  - Shilong L. Piao
AU  - Xinghui Xia
AU  - Tom J. Battin
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/06/17
JO  - Nature
DO  - 10.1038/s41586-026-10664-8
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10664-8
AB  - Climate-induced permafrost thaw unlocks large stores of organic carbon that are mineralized and emitted as carbon dioxide (CO2) from rivers to the atmosphere1. Concurrently, warming and permafrost thaw can increase mineral weathering rates, thus affecting the release and sequestration of inorganic carbon2–4. Yet how these biological and geological carbon cycles interact and jointly affect CO2 dynamics (emission compared with drawdown) in permafrost rivers remains unknown5. Here we combine CO2 emissions, organic and inorganic solute concentrations, dual carbon isotopes (δ13C–Δ14C) and geochemical modelling to infer how permafrost thaw may affect river biogeochemistry over decades to centuries across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Leveraging a gradient of thermal permafrost degradation, we find that river CO2 emissions decline, whereas solute fluxes from rock weathering increase with decreasing permafrost cover. Across this region, net CO2 drawdown fluxes from rock weathering are about 35% of river CO2 emissions, varying from around 15% in catchments with continuous permafrost to more than 100% in catchments with discontinuous or isolated permafrost. Thus, carbon fluxes from chemical weathering may become increasingly important with ongoing permafrost thaw, potentially even outpacing river CO2 emissions. Our findings disentangle the interplay between biological and geological carbon fluxes that are important for the cryosphere and the global carbon cycle. Permafrost thaw on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau increases rock-weathering rates while reducing river CO2 emissions, suggesting geological carbon fluxes may eventually outpace thaw-driven emissions.
SN  - 0028-0836
SN  - 1476-4687
ER  -