Disparities in type 2 diabetes incidence trends during the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden: a register-based population study

@article{andreasson2026disparities,
  title = {{Disparities in type 2 diabetes incidence trends during the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden: a register-based population study}},
  author = {Josefine Andreasson and Dominik Dietler and Jonas Björk and Louise Bennet},
  journal = {BMC Public Health},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1186/s12889-026-30127-z},
  url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-026-30127-z},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}

TY  - JOUR
TI  - Disparities in type 2 diabetes incidence trends during the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden: a register-based population study
AU  - Josefine Andreasson
AU  - Dominik Dietler
AU  - Jonas Björk
AU  - Louise Bennet
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/28
JO  - BMC Public Health
DO  - 10.1186/s12889-026-30127-z
UR  - https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-026-30127-z
AB  - Background: The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly affected health care provision for chronic diseases, including type 2 diabetes. However, its effects on type 2 diabetes incidence remain poorly understood, particularly how they differ between population groups, which has not yet been examined in a Swedish context. We aimed to investigate trends in type 2 diabetes incidence in Sweden from 2016 to 2022, and to explore whether potential changes in type 2 diabetes incidence associated with the COVID-19 pandemic varied by sex, age, or migration status.  Methods: Quarterly incidence rates of new-onset type 2 diabetes were calculated from individual-level register data for a dynamic population consisting of all adults (age ≥ 18 years) in Sweden during 2016–2019 (pre-pandemic) and 2020–2022 (pandemic). Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for each pandemic year were modelled in multivariable Poisson regression analysis using the pre-pandemic years as reference, adjusted for age, sex, migration status, season, and long-term annual trend. Stratified and interaction analyses were performed based on age, sex, and migration status.  Results: Overall, the incidence of type 2 diabetes showed an increasing underlying linear trend of 3.6% (IRR 1.036, 95% CI 1.028, 1.045) between 2016 and 2022. During the pandemic (2020–2022), the overall type 2 diabetes incidence decreased by 6% relative to the underlying linear trend (IRR 0.94, 95% CI 0.91, 0.97). The decrease was strongest in 2020 (IRR 0.90, 95% CI 0.87, 0.94) compared to 2021 (IRR 1.03, 95% CI 0.99, 1.06) and 2022 (IRR 0.95, 95% CI 0.91, 0.99). The decline in type 2 diabetes incidence in 2020 was most pronounced among individuals 65 years and older and in the native-born Swedish population.  Conclusions: During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden, a decline in incidence of type 2 diabetes was observed that varied in magnitude by sex, age, and migration status. This finding may reflect differential but transient changes in health-seeking behaviour during the initial phases of the pandemic. Our results underscore the challenges of maintaining continuous health care for non-communicable diseases during a major health crisis in society, highlighting the need to ensure equitable access for vulnerable groups such as older persons.
SN  - 1471-2458
ER  -