Ecological specialization in vectors alters transmission thresholds and endemic dynamics in multi-host, multi-vector systems
- 1Information School, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
Abstract
Modeling vector-borne pathogens that circulate among several host and vector species hinges on how the force of infection (FOI) is defined. In an i-host, j-vector susceptible-infectious-recovered modeling framework I compare two common FOI denominators: (i) a weighted form in which vectors bite preferred hosts disproportionately, and (ii) an unweighted form that assumes opportunistic biting. Using identical parameter sets calibrated to primate–Aedes data from Kédougou (Senegal), the weighted FOI doubles the basic reproduction number (R0) relative to the opportunistic FOI and can shift R0 across the epidemic threshold. It also produces higher long-run prevalence and larger oscillations. Both autonomous formulations undergo a forward transcritical bifurcation at R0 = 1. Selecting an ecologically realistic biting assumption is therefore critical for predicting sylvatic-to-urban spillover risk and designing interventions in multi-host systems. Author summary: Mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue and yellow fever circulate in forests where several mosquito and animal species interact. I wanted to know how much it matters which host a mosquito decides to bite. Using a model that follows a virus moving among two monkey species and two mosquito species, I tested two scenarios on either end of the behavioral range: mosquitoes that “home in” on their preferred host, and mosquitoes that bite whatever is most abundant.
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BibTeX
@article{althouse2026ecological,
title = {{Ecological specialization in vectors alters transmission thresholds and endemic dynamics in multi-host, multi-vector systems}},
author = {Benjamin M. Althouse},
journal = {PLOS Computational Biology},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1371/journal.pcbi.1014754},
url = {https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1014754},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Ecological specialization in vectors alters transmission thresholds and endemic dynamics in multi-host, multi-vector systems
AU - Benjamin M. Althouse
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/11
JO - PLOS Computational Biology
DO - 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1014754
UR - https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1014754
AB - Modeling vector-borne pathogens that circulate among several host and vector species hinges on how the force of infection (FOI) is defined. In an i-host, j-vector susceptible-infectious-recovered modeling framework I compare two common FOI denominators: (i) a weighted form in which vectors bite preferred hosts disproportionately, and (ii) an unweighted form that assumes opportunistic biting. Using identical parameter sets calibrated to primate–Aedes data from Kédougou (Senegal), the weighted FOI doubles the basic reproduction number (R0) relative to the opportunistic FOI and can shift R0 across the epidemic threshold. It also produces higher long-run prevalence and larger oscillations. Both autonomous formulations undergo a forward transcritical bifurcation at R0 = 1. Selecting an ecologically realistic biting assumption is therefore critical for predicting sylvatic-to-urban spillover risk and designing interventions in multi-host systems. Author summary: Mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue and yellow fever circulate in forests where several mosquito and animal species interact. I wanted to know how much it matters which host a mosquito decides to bite. Using a model that follows a virus moving among two monkey species and two mosquito species, I tested two scenarios on either end of the behavioral range: mosquitoes that “home in” on their preferred host, and mosquitoes that bite whatever is most abundant.
SN - 1553-7358
ER -