Quantifying AI data center nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from space
Abstract
AI data center power demand is spurring rapid deployment of on- and near-site natural gas turbines. The resulting nitrogen oxide NOx pollution is a growing concern but has not previously been quantified with atmospheric observations. Here we demonstrate space-based detection and quantification of NOx emissions from the SpaceXAI Colossus 2 power plant in Southaven, Mississippi. Using observations from the geostationary TEMPO satellite instrument, we detect a strong increase in local mean NO2 column concentrations after the plant began operations in late 2025. We then use TEMPO to estimate two-week-average NOx source rates from August 2025 to August 2026, calibrating against continuous emission monitoring system (CEMS) data from US power plants. TEMPO first detected NOx emissions in December 2025 at 530±220 kg h−1. We find that emissions increased through August 2026, averaging 870±165 kg h−1 after February 2026, roughly 19±4 times higher than expected from the facility's March 2026 permit for 41 turbines operating under best available control technology (BACT) requirements (∼47 kg h−1). Emissions at the expected level would be undetectable by our TEMPO analysis.
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BibTeX
@misc{gauld2026quantifying,
title = {{Quantifying AI data center nitrogen oxide (NO$_x$) emissions from space}},
author = {Kevin D. Gauld and Daniel J. Varon and Nicholas Balasus and Daniel H. Cusworth},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2608.22153},
eprint = {2608.22153},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.22153},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Quantifying AI data center nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions from space
AU - Kevin D. Gauld
AU - Daniel J. Varon
AU - Nicholas Balasus
AU - Daniel H. Cusworth
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/19
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2608.22153
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.22153
AB - AI data center power demand is spurring rapid deployment of on- and near-site natural gas turbines. The resulting nitrogen oxide NO_x pollution is a growing concern but has not previously been quantified with atmospheric observations. Here we demonstrate space-based detection and quantification of NO_x emissions from the SpaceXAI Colossus 2 power plant in Southaven, Mississippi. Using observations from the geostationary TEMPO satellite instrument, we detect a strong increase in local mean NO_2 column concentrations after the plant began operations in late 2025. We then use TEMPO to estimate two-week-average NO_x source rates from August 2025 to August 2026, calibrating against continuous emission monitoring system (CEMS) data from US power plants. TEMPO first detected NO_x emissions in December 2025 at 530±220 kg h^−1. We find that emissions increased through August 2026, averaging 870±165 kg h^−1 after February 2026, roughly 19±4 times higher than expected from the facility's March 2026 permit for 41 turbines operating under best available control technology (BACT) requirements (∼47 kg h^−1). Emissions at the expected level would be undetectable by our TEMPO analysis.
ER -