Major volcanic eruptions episodically disrupted the continuity of polar warming through aerosol forcing
- 1National Centre for Earth Observation, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- 2Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- 3Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Abstract
The polar regions are warming rapidly, exceeding the global average due to greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Using CMIP6 simulations, HadCRUT5 data, and MERRA-2 aerosol records, this study shows that major 20th-century volcanic eruptions, Agung (1963), El Chichón (1982), and Pinatubo (1991) temporarily offset polar warming through sulfate-induced cooling. The Agung eruption suppressed Arctic surface air temperature anomalies for approximately 4–5 years (1964–1968), El Chichón for a similar duration (1983–1987), and Pinatubo for about 4–5 years (1992–1996), demonstrating a consistent multi-year cooling response following each event. Without these eruptions, Arctic surface air temperature anomalies would have increased by up to 0.5 °C, whereas volcanic activity caused short-term cooling ranging from −0.07 °C to −0.4 °C. Arctic minimum temperatures (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}Tmin \end{document}Tmin) are rising faster than maximum temperatures (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}Tmax \end{document}Tmax), indicating asymmetric warming. In contrast, Antarctic responses were weaker, moderated by oceanic and atmospheric dynamics. Collectively, these eruptions produced episodic multi-year cooling that temporarily interrupted the ongoing Arctic warming trajectory, with warming resuming as volcanic aerosol forcing diminished. Spatial patterns reveal pronounced warming in the central Arctic, Greenland, and Siberia in the absence of volcanic forcing, highlighting the role of eruptions in modulating polar warming and providing insights relevant to future geoengineering considerations.
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BibTeX
@article{swain2026major,
title = {{Major volcanic eruptions episodically disrupted the continuity of polar warming through aerosol forcing}},
author = {Basudev Swain and Scott Osprey and Roy G. Grainger and Rui Song and Marco Vountas},
journal = {Npj Clean Air},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.1038/s44407-026-00111-3},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s44407-026-00111-3},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Major volcanic eruptions episodically disrupted the continuity of polar warming through aerosol forcing
AU - Basudev Swain
AU - Scott Osprey
AU - Roy G. Grainger
AU - Rui Song
AU - Marco Vountas
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/01
JO - Npj Clean Air
DO - 10.1038/s44407-026-00111-3
UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s44407-026-00111-3
AB - The polar regions are warming rapidly, exceeding the global average due to greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Using CMIP6 simulations, HadCRUT5 data, and MERRA-2 aerosol records, this study shows that major 20th-century volcanic eruptions, Agung (1963), El Chichón (1982), and Pinatubo (1991) temporarily offset polar warming through sulfate-induced cooling. The Agung eruption suppressed Arctic surface air temperature anomalies for approximately 4–5 years (1964–1968), El Chichón for a similar duration (1983–1987), and Pinatubo for about 4–5 years (1992–1996), demonstrating a consistent multi-year cooling response following each event. Without these eruptions, Arctic surface air temperature anomalies would have increased by up to 0.5 °C, whereas volcanic activity caused short-term cooling ranging from −0.07 °C to −0.4 °C. Arctic minimum temperatures (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}T_min \end{document}Tmin) are rising faster than maximum temperatures (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}T_max \end{document}Tmax), indicating asymmetric warming. In contrast, Antarctic responses were weaker, moderated by oceanic and atmospheric dynamics. Collectively, these eruptions produced episodic multi-year cooling that temporarily interrupted the ongoing Arctic warming trajectory, with warming resuming as volcanic aerosol forcing diminished. Spatial patterns reveal pronounced warming in the central Arctic, Greenland, and Siberia in the absence of volcanic forcing, highlighting the role of eruptions in modulating polar warming and providing insights relevant to future geoengineering considerations.
SN - 3059-2240
ER -